The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
| Jan 6, 2015
Construction permits exceeded $2 billion in Minneapolis in 2014
Two major projects—a new stadium for the Minnesota Vikings NFL team and the city’s Downtown East redevelopment—accounted for about half of the total worth of the permits issued.
| Jan 6, 2015
Snøhetta unveils design proposal of the Barack Obama Presidential Center Library for the University of Hawaii
The plan by Snøhetta and WCIT Architecture features a building that appears square from the outside, but opens at one corner into a rounded courtyard with a pool, Dezeen reports.
| Jan 5, 2015
Another billionaire sports club owner plans to build a football stadium in Los Angeles
Kroenke Group is the latest in a series of high-profile investors that want to bring back pro football to the City of Lights.
| Jan 5, 2015
Beyond training: How locker rooms are becoming more like living rooms
Despite having common elements—lockers for personal gear and high-quality sound systems—the real challenge when designing locker rooms is creating a space that reflects the attitude of the team, writes SRG Partnership's Aaron Pleskac.
| Jan 2, 2015
Illustrations of classic architecture bring in the new year with style
New York-based designer Xinran Ma has illustrated a New Year's greeting card that assembles pieces of various brutalist and modernist architecture.
| Jan 2, 2015
Construction put in place enjoyed healthy gains in 2014
Construction consultant FMI foresees—with some caveats—continuing growth in the office, lodging, and manufacturing sectors. But funding uncertainties raise red flags in education and healthcare.
| Dec 30, 2014
A simplified arena concept for NBA’s Warriors creates interest
The Golden State Warriors, currently the team with the best record in the National Basketball Association, looks like it could finally get a new arena.
| Dec 30, 2014
The future of healthcare facilities: new products, changing delivery models, and strategic relationships
Healthcare continues to shift toward Madison Avenue and Silicon Valley as it revamps business practices to focus on consumerism and efficiency, writes CBRE Healthcare's Patrick Duke.
| Dec 29, 2014
High-strength aluminum footbridge designed to withstand deep-ocean movement, high wind speeds [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
The metal’s flexibility makes the difference in an oil rig footbridge connecting platforms in the West Philippine Sea. The design solution was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
HDR and Hill International to turn three floors of a jail into a modern, secure healthcare center [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
By bringing healthcare services in house, Dallas County Jail will greatly minimize the security risk and added cost of transferring ill or injured prisoners to a nearby hospital. The project was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.