The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
Green | Jul 23, 2015
NASA: U.S. headed for worst droughts in a millennium
Data from NASA shows carbon emissions could be the driving force behind devastating water shortages and record droughts in the western U.S.
Airports | Jul 22, 2015
MUST SEE: JFK airport taps Gensler to design terminal for animals
Pets can enjoy luxurious spa and grooming services before being transported directly to their flight from the terminal.
Office Buildings | Jul 21, 2015
Finally! There's a workplace trend that’s worth embracing
There’s a realization by corporate real estate executives that in order to create a successful workplace, there must be alignment between their people, their place, and the tools they have to do their jobs.
University Buildings | Jul 21, 2015
Maker spaces: Designing places to test, break, and rebuild
Gensler's Kenneth Fisher and Keller Roughton highlight recent maker space projects at MIT and the University of Nebraska that provide just the right mix of equipment, tools, spaces, and disciplines to spark innovation.
Architects | Jul 21, 2015
Architecture Billings Index at highest mark since 2007
This is the first month in 2015 that all regions are reporting positive business conditions, said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 20, 2015
New stylus brings digital sketching to the next level
Without buttons, users can change the weight of the stylus’ stroke.
Architects | Jul 20, 2015
New York design competition looks to shed the sidewalk shed
New York, which has nearly 200 total miles of sidewalk sheds, is seeking a concept that is practical but that also looks good.
Cultural Facilities | Jul 19, 2015
SET Architects wins design competition for Holocaust Memorial
The design for the memorial in Bologna, Italy, is dominated by two large metal monolithic structures that represent the oppressive wooden bunks in concentration camps in Germany during World War II.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 17, 2015
Japan scraps Zaha Hadid's Tokyo Olympic Stadium project
The rising price tag was one of the downfalls of the 70-meter-tall, 290,000-sm stadium. In 2014, the cost of the project was 163 billion yen, but that rose to 252 billion yen this year.
Cultural Facilities | Jul 16, 2015
Louisville group plans to build world's largest disco ball
The sphere would more than double the size of the current record holder.
