The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jul 12, 2017
Midyear Rent Report: 26 states saw rental price increases in first half of 2017
The most notable rental increases are in growing markets in the South and Southwest: New Orleans, Glendale, Ariz., Houston, Reno, N.V., and Atlanta.
Giants 400 | Jul 12, 2017
Innovation abounds, but will it lead to growth for AEC Giants?
Engineering firms such as Arup, Glumac, and Thornton Tomasetti are leveraging their in-house expertise to develop products and tools for their design teams, clients, and even the competition.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 12, 2017
7 noteworthy multifamily projects: posh amenities, healthy living, plugged-in lifestyle
Zen meditation gardens, bocce courts, saltwater pools, and free drinks highlight the niceties at these new multifamily developments.
Accelerate Live! | Jul 6, 2017
Watch all 20 Accelerate Live! talks on demand
BD+C’s inaugural AEC innovation conference, Accelerate Live! (May 11, Chicago), featured talks on machine learning, AI, gaming in construction, maker culture, and health-generating buildings.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 29, 2017
Uniting healthcare and community
Out of the many insights that night, everyone agreed that the healthcare industry is ripe for disruption and that communities contribute immensely to our health and wellness.
Architects | Jun 25, 2017
Stantec adds RNL Design to its stable, fortifying several of its business units
The engineering giant also names successor to CEO who will retire at the end of this year.
Building Team | Jun 22, 2017
Seven lessons learned on commissioning projects
Commissioning is where the rubber meets the road in terms of building design.
Sponsored | Building Team | Jun 20, 2017
Plan ahead when building in the west
Getting a project through plan review can be an unusually long process, anywhere from six months to two years.
Architects | Jun 19, 2017
Preparing to negotiate: Get your head in the game
Logical and well-planned steps to effective negotiation.
| Jun 13, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Is the road to the future the path of least resistance? Sasha Reed, Bluebeam (sponsored)
Bluebeam’s Sasha Reed discusses why AEC leaders should give their teams permission to responsibly break things and create ecosystems of people, process, and technology.