The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
Hotel Facilities | Apr 24, 2024
The U.S. hotel construction market sees record highs in the first quarter of 2024
As seen in the Q1 2024 U.S. Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), at the end of the first quarter, there are 6,065 projects with 702,990 rooms in the pipeline. This new all-time high represents a 9% year-over-year (YOY) increase in projects and a 7% YOY increase in rooms compared to last year.
Architects | Apr 24, 2024
Shepley Bulfinch appoints new Board of Director: Evelyn Lee, FAIA
Shepley Bulfinch, a national architecture firm announced the appointment of new Board of Director member Evelyn Lee, FAIA as an outside director. With this new appointment, Lucia Quinn has stepped down from the firm’s Board, after serving many years as an outside board advisor and then as an outside director.
ProConnect Events | Apr 23, 2024
5 more ProConnect events scheduled for 2024, including all-new 'AEC Giants'
SGC Horizon present 7 ProConnect events in 2024.
75 Top Building Products | Apr 22, 2024
Enter today! BD+C's 75 Top Building Products for 2024
BD+C editors are now accepting submissions for the annual 75 Top Building Products awards. The winners will be featured in the November/December 2024 issue of Building Design+Construction.
Laboratories | Apr 22, 2024
Why lab designers should aim to ‘speak the language’ of scientists
Learning more about the scientific work being done in the lab gives designers of those spaces an edge, according to Adrian Walters, AIA, LEED AP BD+C, Principal and Director of SMMA's Science & Technology team.
Resiliency | Apr 22, 2024
Controversy erupts in Florida over how homes are being rebuilt after Hurricane Ian
The Federal Emergency Management Agency recently sent a letter to officials in Lee County, Florida alleging that hundreds of homes were rebuilt in violation of the agency’s rules following Hurricane Ian. The letter provoked a sharp backlash as homeowners struggle to rebuild following the devastating 2022 storm that destroyed a large swath of the county.
Mass Timber | Apr 22, 2024
British Columbia changing building code to allow mass timber structures of up to 18 stories
The Canadian Province of British Columbia is updating its building code to expand the use of mass timber in building construction. The code will allow for encapsulated mass-timber construction (EMTC) buildings as tall as 18 stories for residential and office buildings, an increase from the previous 12-story limit.
Standards | Apr 22, 2024
Design guide offers details on rain loads and ponding on roofs
The American Institute of Steel Construction and the Steel Joist Institute recently released a comprehensive roof design guide addressing rain loads and ponding. Design Guide 40, Rain Loads and Ponding provides guidance for designing roof systems to avoid or resist water accumulation and any resulting instability.
Building Materials | Apr 22, 2024
Tacoma, Wash., investigating policy to reuse and recycle building materials
Tacoma, Wash., recently initiated a study to find ways to increase building material reuse through deconstruction and salvage. The city council unanimously voted to direct the city manager to investigate deconstruction options and estimate costs.
Student Housing | Apr 19, 2024
$115 million Cal State Long Beach student housing project will add 424 beds
A new $115 million project recently broke ground at California State University, Long Beach (CSULB) that will add housing for 424 students at below-market rates. The 108,000 sf La Playa Residence Hall, funded by the State of California’s Higher Education Student Housing Grant Program, will consist of three five-story structures connected by bridges.