The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
| Apr 24, 2012
Roofing Supply Group acquired by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice
RSG provides a complete offering of residential and commercial roofing materials and related supplies.
| Apr 24, 2012
McLennan named Ashoka Fellow
McLennan was recognized for his work on the Living Building Challenge.
| Apr 24, 2012
AECOM design and engineering team realizes NASA vision for Sustainability Base
LEED Platinum facility opens at NASA Ames Research Center at California’s Moffett Field.
| Apr 23, 2012
Vegas’ CityCenter called financial ‘black hole’
Two and a half years ago, stockholders filed six lawsuits after the stock price fell from $99.75 on Oct. 9, 2007, to $1.89 on March 5, 2009. Bondholders sued over similar steep losses.
| Apr 23, 2012
Innovative engineering behind BIG’s Vancouver Tower
Buro Happold’s structural design supports the top-heavy, complex building in a high seismic zone; engineers are using BIM technology to design a concrete structure with post-tensioned walls.
| Apr 23, 2012
AAMA releases updated specification for anodized aluminum
AAMA 611-12 describes test procedures and requirements for high performance (Class I) and commercial (Class II) architectural quality aluminum oxide coatings applied to aluminum extrusions and panels for architectural products.
| Apr 23, 2012
Thornton Tomasetti project wins AISC Merit Award
Thornton Tomasetti provided structural design services through construction administration to architect HOK for the 1.6-million-sf tower and tiara structure, which comprises 15 steel tube arches spanning approximately 158 feet horizontally and 130 feet vertically from the top of the main building roof.
| Apr 23, 2012
Construction underway on City Winery Chicago
The Building Team is maintaining the old brick and timber construction, while adding 5,000-sf of new construction in the form of a two-story addition within the site’s existing courtyard.
| Apr 20, 2012
McCarthy completes Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital Replacement Facility
The new hospital’s architectural design combines traditional Santa Barbara Spanish colonial architecture with 21st century medical conveniences highlighted by a therapeutic and sustainable atmosphere.
| Apr 20, 2012
Century-old courthouse renovated for Delaware law firm offices
To account for future expansion, Francis Cauffman developed a plan to accommodate the addition of an 8-story tower to the building.