The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
![The lead times for several building materials exceeds 20 weeks. Image: Consigli](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Consigli%20October%20Outlook.png)
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
| Feb 10, 2014
Architecture Design Collaborative announces firm opening in Southern California
Today, Architecture Design Collaborative officially announces the launch of its firm providing a full range of architecture and interior design services nationwide. Architecture Design Collaborative offers architectural design services, comprehensive interior design services, developer collaboration, direct tenant improvement, repositioning and site planning.
| Feb 10, 2014
Ball State to host Geothermal Conference on design, drilling and equipment - April 10, 2014
To best serve the industry, Ball State University has organized a single day conference in which participants will be able to exchange technical notes, develop understandings and share experiences with design, drilling, and equipment issues related to geothermal ground source heat pump technology.
| Feb 7, 2014
DOE, Autodesk team to overhaul the EnergyPlus simulation program
The update will allow a larger ecosystem of developers to contribute updates to the code in order to improve performance and decrease the time required to run energy model simulations.
| Feb 7, 2014
Bernards announces executive leadership realignment
Changes reflect long-term growth plans as builder enters its fifth decade.
| Feb 7, 2014
Zaha Hadid's 'white crystal' petroleum research center taking shape in the desert [slideshow]
Like a crystalline form still in the state of expansion, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center will rise from the desert in dramatic fashion, with a network of bright-white, six-sided cells combining to form an angular, shell-like façade.
| Feb 6, 2014
End of the open workplace?
If you’ve been following news about workplace design in the popular media, you might believe that the open workplace has run its course. While there’s no shortage of bad open-plan workplaces, there are two big flaws with the now common claim that openness is bad.
| Feb 6, 2014
New Hampshire metal building awes visitors
Visitors to the Keene Family YMCA in New Hampshire are often surprised by what they encounter. Liz Coppola calls it the “wow factor.” “Literally, there’s jaw dropping,” says Coppola, director of financial and program development for the Keene Family YMCA.
| Feb 5, 2014
M&A activity down in 2013 among architecture, engineering firms: Report
In 2013, consultant Morrissey Goodale observed 168 sales of U.S.-based architecture and engineering (“A/E”) firms – down nearly 7% from the record 180 sales of U.S.-based A/E firms in 2012.
| Feb 5, 2014
BIA Opens Entries for 25th Annual Brick in Architecture Awards
Entries open on February 10 for the Brick Industry Association's (BIA) Brick in Architecture Awards. Celebrating its silver anniversary, BIA's annual honors spotlight outstanding, innovative and sustainable architecture that incorporates clay brick products as the predominant exterior building or paving material.
| Feb 5, 2014
Multifamily Housing, Green Building, Market Trends, Innovation to be Prime Topics at MBI’s World of Modular
More than 600 developers, contractors, architects, builders, dealers and equipment/service suppliers are expected at the event, slated for March 21-24 in San Antonio, Texas, and hosted by the Modular Building Institute.