The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
![The lead times for several building materials exceeds 20 weeks. Image: Consigli](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Consigli%20October%20Outlook.png)
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
| Dec 12, 2014
Dunkin’ Donuts launches certification for green restaurant buildings
The company aims to build 100 new DD Green-certified restaurants by the end of 2016.
Sponsored | | Dec 11, 2014
Fire rated glass contributes to Salt Lake City Public Safety Building’s sustainable and resilient design goals
One of the most exciting new buildings to open its doors this year is the Salt Lake City Public Safety Building Salt Lake City, Utah. This $125 million, 335,000-sf facility blends sustainability and resiliency under one roof. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Dec 10, 2014
International Olympic Committee releases first images of new HQ in Switzerland
Designed by 3XN, the new headquarters is located within a park on the shores of Lake Geneva and adjacent to historic Château de Vidy, which has been the iconic home of the IOC.
| Dec 10, 2014
CannonDesign acquires Astorino, forms design-led design-build division
The merger also extends CannonDesign’s presence in the markets Astorino currently serves, namely Pittsburgh and Abu Dhabi.
| Dec 9, 2014
Steven Holl wins Mumbai City Museum competition with 'solar water' scheme
Steven Holl's design for the new wing features a reflective pool that will generate energy.
| Dec 9, 2014
ABC economist predicts continued construction industry growth in 2015
In his latest report, ABC's Chief Economist Anirban Basu forecasts nonresidential construction spending to expand by roughly 7.5% next year, led by the power, lodging, office, and manufacturing sectors.
| Dec 8, 2014
How brick and mortar enables online retail
According to a shopping preferences study conducted by A.T. Kearney, as many as two-thirds of shoppers go to a physical store before or after making an online purchase, writes Gensler's Jill Nickels.
| Dec 8, 2014
The year’s boldest BIM/VDC themes
High-speed rendering software, custom APIs, virtual reality tools, and BIM workflow tips were among the hottest BIM/VDC topics in 2014.
| Dec 8, 2014
AEC firms upbeat about financial results, 2015 looking rosier [exclusive BD+C survey]
The market outlook is brighter for U.S. architecture, engineering, and construction companies, with a majority of AEC firms reporting higher revenues, strong forecasts, and sound financial health, according to BD+C's annual Market Forecast Survey.
| Dec 8, 2014
The global sanitation crisis leads to 2.5 million deaths every year
When we see the incredible technology being produced by global plumbing manufacturers, it’s hard to conceive why no viable technical solution to the global sanitation issue has come forth, writes BD+C's Robert Cassidy.