The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
![The lead times for several building materials exceeds 20 weeks. Image: Consigli](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Consigli%20October%20Outlook.png)
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
Contractors | Apr 30, 2018
Following—and forecasting—the money: Financial modeling for project managers
To wait until there’s a problem affecting design and construction before consulting with a PM wastes valuable time when a project is at its most vulnerable point.
Contractors | Apr 26, 2018
At Boston University’s dental school, ‘under construction’ won’t mean ‘closed for business’
A major renovation and addition are scheduled to minimize operational disruption.
Contractors | Apr 20, 2018
Construction employment rises in 38 states and D.C. from March 2017 to March 2018
California and West Virginia have biggest job gains for the year, North Dakota has largest decline; Texas and Alaska have largest monthly pickup, New York and Hawaii have largest monthly drops.
Contractors | Apr 13, 2018
Clayco to open new office in Greenville, South Carolina
The office will be located in the One building at 2 West Washington Street.
Contractors | Apr 9, 2018
Tech Report 5.0: Smart(er) Jobsites
Real-time construction analysis, just-in-time materials delivery, digital production planning systems—these are just a few of the novel approaches construction firms are implementing to take control of their jobsites.
Market Data | Apr 2, 2018
Construction spending in February inches up from January
Association officials urge federal, state and local officials to work quickly to put recently enacted funding increases to work to improve aging and over-burdened infrastructure, offset public-sector spending drops.
Contractors | Mar 27, 2018
Shawmut Design and Construction’s burgeoning L.A. office looks to hospitality and interiors for future growth
A new division also taps the luxury homes market.
Contractors | Mar 9, 2018
Undoing 5 myths of IPD and Lean construction
The Lean Construction Institute, one of this year’s Movers+Shapers, has been sponsoring valuable research recently.
Contractors | Mar 6, 2018
Skender revolutionizes how the industry builds, integrates design, construction, and manufacturing
Envisioning a radically more efficient future for the building industry, Skender announces its expansion beyond construction, becoming a vertically integrated company including construction, design and building component manufacturing functions. The expansion includes significant investment in the launch of a new Chicago-based advanced manufacturing subsidiary and the acquisition of the boutique design firm Ingenious Architecture.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 4, 2018
Katerra, a tech-driven GC, plots ambitious expansion
Investors flock to this vertically integrated startup, which automates its design and construction processes.