The deterioration in construction output growth across emerging markets has been worse than previously expected, particularly in the US and the Middle East. Therefore, the forecast for global construction output growth in 2019 has been revised down to 2.7%, which will be the slowest pace of growth in a decade, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s central forecast sees global construction output growth increase to 3.2% in 2020 and then stabilize at 3.4% over the remainder of the forecast period, which runs to 2023. According to the company’s latest report, ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update’, this is partly driven by a projected improvement in the global economy in 2020, which in turn relies on improvements in financial market sentiment and stabilization in some of the larger currently-troubled emerging markets.
Danny Richards, Lead Economist at GlobalData, comments: “Some major advanced economies have struggled to generate growth momentum, including the US, the UK and Australia. In China, where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown, growth will remain positive, contributing to a slight acceleration in growth in total output in the emerging markets.”
Richards continues: “Geopolitical risks are intensifying, which could potentially undermine investor confidence and disrupt capital flows in the early part of the forecast period. Risks to the overall forecast stem primarily from a possible escalation in the trade war between the US and China, as well as inflamed tensions between the US and Iran following the recent drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing center, which were blamed on Iran.
“The emerging markets of South-East Asia will invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment, and this region will be the fastest growing, expanding by 6.4% between 2019 and 2023.”
Information based on GlobalData’s report: ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update.
Related Stories
Market Data | May 23, 2018
Architecture firm billings strengthen in April
Firms report solid growth for seven straight months.
Market Data | May 22, 2018
Vacancies stable, rents rising, and pipeline receding, according to Transwestern’s 1Q US Office Market report
The Big Apple still leads the new construction charge.
Market Data | May 18, 2018
Construction employment rises in 38 states and D.C. from April 2017 to April 2018
California & West Virginia have biggest annual job gains, North Dakota has largest decline; California & Louisiana have largest monthly pickup, Indiana & North Dakota lead monthly drops.
High-rise Construction | May 18, 2018
The 100 tallest buildings ever conventionally demolished
The list comes from a recent CTBUH study.
Resiliency | May 17, 2018
Architects brief lawmakers and policy-makers on disaster recovery as hurricane season approaches
Urge senate passage of disaster recovery reform act; Relationship-building with local communities.
Market Data | May 17, 2018
These 25 cities have the highest urban infill development potential
The results stem from a COMMERCIALCafé study.
Market Data | May 10, 2018
Construction costs surge in April as new tariffs and other trade measures lead to significant increases in materials prices
Association officials warn that the new tariffs and resulting price spikes have the potential to undermine benefits of tax and regulatory reform, urge administration to reconsider.
Market Data | May 7, 2018
Construction employers add 17,000 jobs in April and 257,000 for the year
Unemployment rate for construction increases slightly compared to year earlier as higher pay levels appears to be attracting people with recent construction experience back into the workforce.
Market Data | May 2, 2018
Construction employment increases in 245 metro areas between March 2017 & 2018, as trade fights & infrastructure funding shortfalls loom
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas and Weirton-Steubenville, W.Va.-Ohio experience largest year-over-year gains; Baton Rouge, La. and Auburn-Opelika, Ala. have biggest annual declines.
Market Data | May 2, 2018
Nonresidential Construction down in March, private sector falters, public sector unchanged
February’s spending estimate was revised roughly $10 billion higher.
