Nonresidential building is on track to achieve a “breakout year” in 2015, during which spending growth could exceed 20%, according to projections by construction giant Gilbane in its Summer 2015 Construction Economics Report, “Building for the Future.”
Through the first six months of the year, construction spending for residential, nonresidential building, and nonbuilding structures was increasing at the fastest pace since 2004-2005. On that basis, Gilbane expects total construction spending to expand by 10.9% to $1.067 trillion this year (the second-highest growth total ever recorded), and by more than 8% in 2016. Construction starts are expected to be up by 13.1% to 670,595 units this year.
Nonresidential building starts, which hit a 10-year low in 2012, have been increasing at an average of 17% per year. Nonresidential buildings starts since March 2014 posted the best five quarters since the third quarter of 2008. Although growth should continue, expect it to do so at a more moderate rate, says Gilbane, which predicts those starts to increase this year by only 4.5% to 228,785 units. That construction activity, however, has been driving spending, which Gilbane predicts will increase by 20.2% to $396.7 billion this year. “Escalation will climb to levels typical of rapidly growing markets,” Gilbane observes.
But nonres building’s strengths vary markedly by sector:
- Total spending for manufacturing buildings in 2015 will reach $86.4 billion, up nearly 50% from 2014. No market sector has ever before recorded a 50% year-over-year increase, and manufacturing could replace perennial leader Education as nonres building’s biggest contributing sector. Gilbane foresees spending in this sector cooling off a bit next year to a still-strong 9% increase. Gilbane points out that the manufacturing sector, through the first half of 2015, accounted for 50% of total private construction spending, which is expected to increase this year by 14.5% to $781 billion.
- Spending for educational buildings in 2015 will total $85.3 billion, a 7.1% increase from 2014, the sector’s first substantial increase since 2008. After hitting a low in the fourth quarter of 2013 not seen since 2004, educational spending has rebounded steadily. Gilbane forecasts a 6% gain in 2016.
- Total spending for healthcare construction in 2015 should be up 7% to $41.1 billion. Healthcare spending is slowly recovering after descending to an eight-year low in the fourth quarter 2014. Spending is expected to rise by 6% in 2016.
- Spending for commercial/retail buildings—which was nonres’ strongest growth market in 2012 through 2014—is projected to jump by 8.8% to $68.2 billion this year. Gilbane notes that this sector. Commercial retail is expected to realize a gain of 5.4% in 2016.
- Office building spending in 2015 is on pace to grow by 21.2% to $55.8 billion this year, on top of a 21.3% increase in 2014. Office spending will maintain upward momentum in 2016 but at a slower pace, to 8.4%.
In its report, Gilbane discusses spending for residential construction, which it expects to grow this year by 12.9% to $388 billion, and then to taper off to a 0.7% increase in 2016. “In fact, from the fourth quarter of 2013 through March 2015, new housing starts practically stalled and the rate of residential spending declined,” Gilbane states.
Gilbane is skeptical—to say the least—about other forecasts that project housing starts to reach between 1.3 million and 1.5 million units this year, which would be twice to three times historical growth rates.
The Commerce Department’s estimates for July show housing starts rose by 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.119 million units. Multifamily starts, which over the past few years have fueled housing’s growth, were off 17% to an annualized rate of 413,000 units.
In all construction sectors, the biggest potential constraint to growth continues to be the availability of labor. Gilbane notes that the number of unfilled positions on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for the construction industry has been over 100,000 for 26 of the 28 months through June 2015, and has been trending up since 2012.
“As work volume begins to increase over the next few years, expect productivity to decline,” Gilbane cautions.
Related Stories
Architects | Jan 10, 2018
7 steps to ending a low growth cycle
Here are the top 10 marketing techniques as rated by high-growth firms and how they compare to their no-growth counterparts.
Big Data | Jan 5, 2018
In the age of data-driven design, has POE’s time finally come?
At a time when research- and data-based methods are playing a larger role in architecture, there remains a surprisingly scant amount of post-occupancy research. But that’s starting to change.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 4, 2018
Shigeru Ban’s mass timber tower in Vancouver gets city approval
The 232-foot-tall Terrace House luxury condo development will be the tallest hybrid wood structure in North America.
Contractors | Jan 4, 2018
Construction spending in a ‘mature’ period of incremental growth
Labor shortages are spiking wages. Materials costs are rising, too.
Contractors | Jan 2, 2018
Construction jobs increase in 40 states between November 2016 and November 2017
"There were robust construction gains in most parts of the country as the economy continues to expand," said AGC’s Stephen Sandherr.
Green | Dec 22, 2017
Green builders can use ‘big data’ to make design decisions
More and more, green project teams are relying on publicly available “external datasets” to prioritize sustainable design decisions, says sustainability consultant Adele Houghton.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Dec 21, 2017
Interactive map includes detailed information on historic New York City buildings
The New York City Landmarks Preservation Commission launched a new, enhanced version of its interactive map, Discover NYC Landmarks.
High-rise Construction | Dec 20, 2017
Another record year for high-rise construction
More than 140 skyscrapers were completed across the globe this year, including 15 supertall towers.
Game Changers | Dec 20, 2017
Urban farms can help plant seeds for cities’ growth around them
Urban farms have been impacting cities’ agribusiness—and, on some cases, their redevelopment—for decades.
Public Health Labs | Dec 19, 2017
10 takeaways from SmithGroup’s ‘lab of the future’ initiative
The LAB2050 initiative digs into the scientific trends, technologies, and economics that will shape tomorrow’s research laboratory environments.