Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
Energy Efficiency | Apr 7, 2023
Department of Energy makes $1 billion available for states, local governments to upgrade building codes
The U.S. Department of Energy is offering funding to help state and local governments upgrade their building codes to boost energy efficiency. The funding will support improved building codes that reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency, according to DOE.
Architects | Apr 6, 2023
New tool from Perkins&Will will make public health data more accessible to designers and architects
Called PRECEDE, the dashboard is an open-source tool developed by Perkins&Will that draws on federal data to identify and assess community health priorities within the U.S. by location. The firm was recently awarded a $30,000 ASID Foundation Grant to enhance the tool.
Market Data | Apr 6, 2023
JLL’s 2023 Construction Outlook foresees growth tempered by cost increases
The easing of supply chain snags for some product categories, and the dispensing with global COVID measures, have returned the North American construction sector to a sense of normal. However, that return is proving to be complicated, with the construction industry remaining exceptionally busy at a time when labor and materials cost inflation continues to put pricing pressure on projects, leading to caution in anticipation of a possible downturn. That’s the prognosis of JLL’s just-released 2023 U.S. and Canada Construction Outlook.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Apr 5, 2023
Façade innovation: University of Stuttgart tests a ‘saturated building skin’ for lessening heat islands
HydroSKIN is a façade made with textiles that stores rainwater and uses it later to cool hot building exteriors. The façade innovation consists of an external, multilayered 3D textile that acts as a water collector and evaporator.
Market Data | Apr 4, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending up 0.4% in February 2023
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.4% in February, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $982.2 billion for the month, up 16.8% from the previous year.
Sustainability | Apr 4, 2023
ASHRAE releases Building Performance Standards Guide
Building Performance Standards (BPS): A Technical Resource Guide was created to provide a technical basis for policymakers, building owners, practitioners and other stakeholders interested in developing and implementing a BPS policy. The publication is the first in a series of seven guidebooks by ASHRAE on building decarbonization.
Sustainability | Apr 4, 2023
NIBS report: Decarbonizing the U.S. building sector will require massive, coordinated effort
Decarbonizing the building sector will require a massive, strategic, and coordinated effort by the public and private sectors, according to a report by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS).
Education Facilities | Apr 3, 2023
Oklahoma’s Francis Tuttle Technology Center opens academic center for affordable education and training
Oklahoma’s Francis Tuttle Technology Center, which provides career-specific training to adults and high school students, has completed its Francis Tuttle Danforth Campus—a two-story, 155,000-sf academic building. The project aims to fill the growing community’s rising demand for affordable education and training.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 30, 2023
New University of St. Thomas sports arena will support school's move to Division I athletics
The University of St. Thomas in Saint Paul, Minn., last year became the first Division III institution in the modern NCAA to transition directly to Division I. Plans for a new multipurpose sports arena on campus will support that move.
Warehouses | Mar 29, 2023
Construction completed on Canada’s first multi-story distribution center
Construction was recently completed on Canada’s first major multi-story industrial project, a distribution center in Burnaby, British Columbia. The project provides infrastructure for last-mile delivery in a world where consumers have come to expect next-day and same-day delivery, according to Ware Malcomb, the project's architect of record.