Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
| Apr 23, 2012
Construction underway on City Winery Chicago
The Building Team is maintaining the old brick and timber construction, while adding 5,000-sf of new construction in the form of a two-story addition within the site’s existing courtyard.
| Apr 20, 2012
McCarthy completes Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital Replacement Facility
The new hospital’s architectural design combines traditional Santa Barbara Spanish colonial architecture with 21st century medical conveniences highlighted by a therapeutic and sustainable atmosphere.
| Apr 20, 2012
Century-old courthouse renovated for Delaware law firm offices
To account for future expansion, Francis Cauffman developed a plan to accommodate the addition of an 8-story tower to the building.
| Apr 20, 2012
RCMA and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to host International Roof Coatings Conference
The International Roof Coatings Conference will feature keynote speakers Marc LaFrance of the U.S. Department of Energy, and Art Rosenfeld of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
| Apr 20, 2012
Shawmut completes Yard House Restaurant in Boston
12,000-sf restaurant marks new addition to Boston’s Fenway neighborhood.
| Apr 20, 2012
Registration open for Solar Power International 2012 in Orlando
President Bill Clinton to deliver keynote address at ?largest solar energy event in the Americas.
| Apr 19, 2012
The 10 mistakes most likely to get you sued
The California Chamber of Commerce has produced a white paper cataloging the top 10 mistakes most likely to get a company sued. While a few of the laws cited apply specifically to California, some of them are federal and may apply in your state.
| Apr 19, 2012
Holcim cement plants recognized at PCA Spring Meeting
The Holly Hill plant received the PCA’s Chairman’s Safety Performance Award in recognition of their exceptional health and safety programs. The Theodore plant received the Environmental Performance Award in recognition of the steps they take beyond those required by laws, regulations and permits to minimize their impact on the environment.
| Apr 19, 2012
KTGY Group’s Arista Uptown Apartments in Broomfield, Colo. completed
First of eight buildings highlights unique amenities.
| Apr 19, 2012
Nauset begins work on $20M Joint Forces HQ at Hanscom AFB
3D imaging key to project timetable and cost containment.
