Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
| Dec 9, 2013
What is life cycle cost optioneering?
Life cycle cost optioneering is a way of assessing alternative design options, analyzing their long-term capital and operational costs to identify those with the lowest price tag, over the entire life cycle.
| Dec 6, 2013
French concert hall includes integrated musical elements [VIDEO]
La Métaphone, a concert hall in Ognies, France, is a 1,980-sm facility with the unique characteristic of being a structural musical instrument. The solar-powered building incorporates musical elements in its walls, which can be played by musicians inside or outside the facility.
| Dec 5, 2013
Exclusive BD+C survey shows reaction to Sandy Hook tragedy
More than 60% of AEC professionals surveyed by BD+C said their firms experienced heightened interest in security measures from school districts they worked with.
| Dec 4, 2013
First look: Dubai's winning bid for World Expo 2020 [slideshow]
Dubai has been chosen as the site of the 2020 World Expo. HOK led the design team that developed the master plan for the Expo, which is expected to draw more than 25 million visitors from October 2020 through April 2021.
| Dec 3, 2013
‘BIM for all’ platform pays off for contractor
Construction giant JE Dunn is saving millions in cost avoidances by implementing a custom, cloud-based BIM/VDC collaboration platform.
| Dec 3, 2013
Historic Daytona International Speedway undergoing $400 million facelift
The Daytona International Speedway is zooming ahead on the largest renovation in the Florida venue’s 54-year history. Improvements include five redesigned guest entrances, an extended grandstand with 101,000 new seats, and more than 60 new trackside suites for corporate entertaining.
| Dec 3, 2013
Creating a healthcare capital project plan: The truth behind the numbers
When setting up a capital project plan, it's one thing to have the data, but quite another to have the knowledge of the process.
| Dec 3, 2013
Architects urge government to reform design-build contracting process
Current federal contracting laws are discouraging talented architects from competing for federal contracts, depriving government and, by inference, taxpayers of the best design expertise available, according to AIA testimony presented today on Capitol Hill.
| Dec 3, 2013
Construction spending hits four-year peak after rare spike in public outlays
An unusual surge in public construction in October pushed total construction spending to its highest level since May 2009 despite a dip in both private residential and nonresidential activity.
| Nov 27, 2013
BIG's 'oil and vinegar' design wins competition for the Museum of the Human Body [slideshow]
The winning submission by Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG) and A+ Architecture mixes urban pavement and parkland in a flowing, organic plan, like oil and vinegar, explains Bjarke Ingels.
