Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
| Jun 4, 2014
Construction team named for Atlanta Braves ballpark
A joint venture between Barton Malow, Brasfield & Gorrie, Mortenson Construction, and New South Construction will build the Atlanta Braves ballpark, which is scheduled to open in early 2017. Check out the latest renderings of the plan.
| Jun 3, 2014
Must see: World's tallest LEGO tower built in Budapest
The tower, built in front of St. Stephen's Basilica, is topped with a Rubik's cube and was built using thousands of blocks.
| Jun 3, 2014
Great leadership comes down to one thing
While it’s often said that strong leadership is an organization’s competitive advantage, is there a single characteristic that can predict which leaders will be most effective? SPONSORED CONTENT
| Jun 3, 2014
Libeskind's latest skyscraper breaks ground in the Philippines
The Century Spire, Daniel Libeskind's latest project, has just broken ground in Century City, southwest of Manila. It is meant to accommodate apartments and offices.
| Jun 2, 2014
Nonresidential construction spending expands in April
Ten of 16 nonresidential construction subsectors posted increases in spending in April, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data.
| Jun 2, 2014
Parking structures group launches LEED-type program for parking garages
The Green Parking Council, an affiliate of the International Parking Institute, has launched the Green Garage Certification program, the parking industry equivalent of LEED certification.
| Jun 2, 2014
OSHA launches 'stand down' program to promote fall prevention
New program urges firms to explore ways to prevent jobsite falls, which are a leading cause of death and injury for construction workers.
| May 30, 2014
MIT researchers create 'home in a box' transformable wall system for micro apartments
Dubbed CityHome, the system integrates furniture, storage, exercise equipment, lighting, office equipment, and entertainment systems into a compact wall unit.
| May 30, 2014
Riding high: L.A., Chicago working on their version of the High Line elevated park
Cities around the U.S. are taking notice of New York's highly popular High Line elevated park system. Both Chicago and Los Angeles are currently working on High Line-like projects.
| May 30, 2014
Developer will convert Dallas' storied LTV Building into mixed-use residential tower
New Orleans-based HRI Properties recently completed the purchase of one of the most storied buildings in downtown Dallas. The developer will convert the LTV Building into a mixed-use complex, with 171 hotel rooms and 186 luxury apartments.