Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
| Oct 2, 2014
Effective use of building enclosure mock-ups within the commissioning process
Engineers from SSR offer advice and guidelines on implementing building enclosure mockups on any project.
| Oct 2, 2014
Budget busters: Report details 24 of the world's most obscenely over-budget construction projects
Montreal's Olympic Stadium and the Sydney Opera House are among the landmark projects to bust their budgets, according to a new interactive graph by Podio.
| Oct 1, 2014
Philip Johnson's iconic Crystal Cathedral to be modernized, made 'intrinsically Catholic'
Johnson Fain and Rios Clementi Hale Studios have been commissioned by the Roman Catholic Diocese of Orange to upgrade the all-glass church in Garden Grove, Calif. The church acquired the property in 2012.
| Oct 1, 2014
4 trends shaping the future of data centers
As a designer of mission critical facilities, I’ve learned that it’s really difficult to build data centers to keep pace with technology, yet that’s a reality we face along with our clients, writes Gensler's Jackson Metcalf.
| Oct 1, 2014
EYP, WHR Architects merge, strengthening presence in education, healthcare, energy sectors
The merger unites 530 professionals to better address some of the most critical issues facing our nation, namely education, healthcare, and energy.
| Sep 30, 2014
The Big Room concept: Using Building Team collocation to ensure project success
Implementing collocation via the Big Room concept will remove silos, ensure a cadence for daily communication, promote collaboration, and elevate your chances for success, write CBRE Healthcare's Stephen Powell and Magnus Nilsson.
| Sep 30, 2014
USGBC, Bank of America name recipients of 2014 Affordable Green Neighborhoods Grant Program
Eleven projects have been selected for the 2014 Affordable Green Neighborhoods grant program. Each will receive $31,000 and an educational package to support their pursuit of LEED for Neighborhood Development certification.
Sponsored | | Sep 30, 2014
What are you doing to win business and improve morale?? VDC Director Kris Lengieza shares ways to do both
Bluebeam's Sasha Reed sits down with Kris Lengieza, Director of Virtual Design and Construction for Stiles Corporation, to learn how he approaches change management. SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Sep 30, 2014
How project managers can manage technology
Not long ago, the role of a construction project manager revolved around working with people: employees, vendors, consultants, designers, subcontractors and owners. Today, project managers primarily manage information. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Sep 30, 2014
With its 'stacked volumes' scheme, 3XN wins bid to design high-rise in Sydney
By dividing the 200-meter building into five separate volumes and placing atria throughout each volume, the spaces become smaller, more intimate social environments, according to the Danish architects.
