Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
Codes and Standards | Feb 2, 2015
AGC working with EPA on website to help with environmental rule compliance
The goal is for the site to be improved to make it easier for construction contractors to learn how to comply with federal and state environmental guidelines.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 2, 2015
D.C. developer sees apartment project as catalyst for modeling neighborhood after N.Y.'s popular High Line district
It’s no accident that the word “Highline” is in this project’s name. The goal is for the building to be a kind of gateway into the larger redevelopment of the surrounding neighborhood to resemble New York’s City’s trendy downtown Meatpacking District, through which runs a portion the High Line elevated park.
Sponsored | Products and Materials | Feb 2, 2015
What should you consider when reviewing paint warranties?
Warranties can appear to be the same, but as a starting point, you should find out what paint technology your warranty is based on—polyester, silicon-modified polyester or PVDF. Once you’ve established an “apples to apples” comparison with the technologies, you must consider the color palette and its impact on warranty longevity. Review this with your builder, manufacturer or paint company representative.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 1, 2015
7 new factors shaping hospital emergency departments
A new generation of highly efficient emergency care facilities is upping the ante on patient care and convenience while helping to reposition hospital systems within their local markets.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 31, 2015
5 intriguing trends to track in the multifamily housing game
Demand for rental apartments and condos hasn’t been this strong in years, and our experts think the multifamily sector still has legs. But you have to know what developers, tenants, and buyers are looking for to have any hope of succeeding in this fast-changing market sector.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 31, 2015
20% down?!! Survey exposes how thin renters’ wallets are
A survey of more than 25,000 adults found the renters to be more burdened by debt than homeowners and severely short of emergency savings.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 31, 2015
Production builders are still shying away from rental housing
Toll Brothers, Lennar, and Trumark are among a small group of production builders to engage in construction for rental customers.
| Jan 30, 2015
Investment in nonresidential structures expands in fourth quarter
Real gross domestic product expanded 2.6% during the fourth quarter of 2014, following a 5% increase in the third quarter.
Energy Efficiency | Jan 28, 2015
An urban wind and solar energy system that may actually work
The system was designed to take advantage of a building's air flow and generate energy even if its in the middle of a city.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 27, 2015
Multifamily construction, focused on rentals, expected to slow in the coming years
New-home purchases, which recovered strongly in 2014, indicate that homeownership might finally be making a comeback.