Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
Urban Planning | Jan 4, 2016
The next boomtown? Construction and redevelopment sizzle in San Diego
The city's emission-reduction plan could drive influx into downtown
Market Data | Dec 15, 2015
AIA: Architecture Billings Index hits another bump
Business conditions show continued strength in South and West regions.
Industry Research | Dec 8, 2015
AEC leaders say the 'talent wars' are heating up: BD+C exclusive survey
A new survey from Building Design+Construction shows that U.S. architecture, engineering, and construction firms are being stymied by the shortage of experienced design and construction professionals and project managers.
Market Data | Dec 7, 2015
2016 forecast: Continued growth expected for the construction industry
ABC forecasts growth in nonresidential construction spending of 7.4% in 2016 along with growth in employment and backlog.
Contractors | Dec 2, 2015
FMI: Nonresidential construction in a slowdown, according to latest NRCI score
“Economic recovery momentum is losing steam and rising costs in labor and materials start to put a load on the industry,” said Chris Daum, President and CEO of FMI.
Contractors | Dec 2, 2015
ABC releases scorecard on state policies affecting the construction industry
The scorecard website identifies states that have good environments for merit shop contractors, like Arizona, and states that could improve conditions, like New York.
Contractors | Dec 1, 2015
ABC: September's nonresidential spending retains momentum in October
Spending increased in 10 of 16 nonresidential construction sectors on a monthly basis.
Greenbuild Report | Dec 1, 2015
Data centers turn to alternative power sources, new heat controls and UPS systems
Data centers account for 2% of the nation’s electricity consumption and about 30% of the power used annually by the economy’s information and communications technology sector, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Contractors | Dec 1, 2015
The contractor’s role in promoting job site sustainability [AIA course]
Robins & Morton’s Jackie Mustakas offers specific actions that contractors and construction managers can take to green every job site.
Contractors | Nov 30, 2015
Sundt Construction opens its own craft employee training center
The contractor's Center for Craft Excellence, in Phoenix, is in response to the labor shortages in the industry.