Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Sep 9, 2019
2019 Industrial Sector Giants Report: Managing last mile delivery
This and more industrial building sector trends from Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Codes and Standards | Sep 9, 2019
Free app calculates maximum allowable heights and areas for buildings
A free app that calculates the maximum allowable heights and areas for buildings of various occupancy classifications and types of construction has been released.
Retail Centers | Sep 6, 2019
Another well-known retailer files for bankruptcy: Here's the solution to more empty anchor stores
Where can you find the future of retail? At the intersection of experience and instant gratification.
Giants 400 | Sep 5, 2019
Top 85 Hotel Sector Construction Firms for 2019
Suffolk, Yates Companies, AECOM, Swinerton, and Turner top the rankings of the nation's largest hotel sector contractors and construction management firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Contractors | Sep 5, 2019
Katerra adds two GCs to its stable
UEB Builders and Fortune-Johnson General Contractors specialize in multifamily and mixed-used developments.
Giants 400 | Sep 4, 2019
Top 90 K-12 School Sector Construction Firms for 2019
Gilbane, Balfour Beatty, Turner, CORE Construction, and Skanska lead the rankings of the nation's largest K-12 school sector contractors and construction management firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Market Data | Sep 3, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending slips in July 2019, but still surpasses $776 billion
Construction spending declined 0.3% in July, totaling $776 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis.
Giants 400 | Aug 30, 2019
2019 K-12 School Giants Report: 360-degree learning among top school design trends for 2019
K-12 school districts are emphasizing practical, hands-on experience and personalized learning.
Industry Research | Aug 29, 2019
Construction firms expect labor shortages to worsen over the next year
A new AGC-Autodesk survey finds more companies turning to technology to support their jobsites.
Codes and Standards | Aug 29, 2019
Industry leaders ask for government help as trades shortage worsens
AGC asks for more funding for education and increased immigration to fill gaps.