Gilbane, the family owned construction and real estate development firm, is predicting stronger spending on nonresidential building this year, even if the number of projects started doesn’t appreciate significantly.
“Even if new starts growth were to turn flat for the rest of 2015 (which is not expected), those starts already recorded over the past 12 months indicate spending for nonresidential buildings in 2015 will increase 15% over 2014, the best growth since 2007,” writes the company in its “Building For the Future” Spring report on Construction Economics and Market Conditions.
Gilbane estimates that total spending for nonresidential building construction will reach $370 billion this year, a 15.3% increase. The company expects nonresidential starts to slow in 2015 but still hit 218,052 units, 7.4% ahead of the previous year.
Educational building is expected to account for 22.7% of total nonresidential construction spending in 2015, down from its 24.4% market share in 2014 and 30.3% in 2010. Still, Gilbane foresees spending on educational building to be up 7% this year, to $83.8 billion, the first substantial increase since 2008.
The manufacturing sector, whose market share of total nonresidential construction spending is projected to be flat at 17.2% this year, should see its spending amounts increase by 15% to $63.5 billion, which would be on top of a 15% gain in 2014. Spending on office construction is expected to grow 17.5% to $52.6 billion. And construction spending on commercial retail will be up 12.5% to $64.2 billion.
Gilbane projects that nonresidential construction revenue will increase by 9.1%. However, using historical benchmarks as its guide, the company believes that at least half of that gain could be attributable to “rapidly increasing inflation,” which had grown by 11% in the previous three years.
As other industry watchers have noted, Gilbane isn’t seeing much inflation on the materials side, with some exceptions like gypsum and precast concrete. Gilbane is more concerned, though, about construction hiring trends.
As of March 2015, there were 6.344 million construction employees, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. The unemployment rate in construction is now at 9.5% after hitting a low of 6.4% in October 2014. Total hiring in the construction industry was up by an estimated 15% in the first quarter of this year.
Gilbane believes that companies aren’t always using the right metrics to determine their hiring levels.
It notes that since 2012, the number of workers to complete $1 billion of constant volume has increased from about 5.65 million to 6.1 million. That would imply an 8% loss in productivity in three years. But Gilbane insists this “loss” has more to do with overall cost reductions than with projects being over-staffed.
“Workload volume should be used for planning the size of the workforce,” Gilbane states. “As an example, at the 2008 peak of construction cost, a building cost $12 million and took 100 men per year to build. In 2010, that same building potentially cost as little as $10 million to build, 20% less. Did it take 20% fewer men per year to build it? No, certainly not. That would be the fallacy of trying to determine jobs needed based on unadjusted revenue.”
To bolster its argument, Gilbane notes that historical averages (adjusted for inflation) since year 2000 show the number of direct construction jobs supported by $1 billion in construction spending varies +/- from 6,000 jobs. That calculates to one job for every $165,000 (in 2014 dollars) spent on construction, or 6.0 to 7.0 jobs per $1,000,000 spent.
Related Stories
Retail Centers | Apr 28, 2022
Cannabis dispensary Beyond-Hello debuts ‘glass-box’ design for Culver City facility
Los Angeles’ Culver City will open its first cannabis dispensary with Beyond/Hello.
Office Buildings | Apr 28, 2022
A 48-story office tower to rise over boomtown Austin
In downtown Austin, Texas, a planned 48-story office tower, The Republic, recently secured its first major tenant—allowing for the groundbreaking by midyear.
Codes and Standards | Apr 27, 2022
White House guidance on Buy American for infrastructure includes waiver process
Recently released guidance on the Buy American provision within the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act released by the Office of Management and Budget includes a waiver process.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Apr 27, 2022
New Univ. of Texas Moody Center houses men’s and women’s basketball, other events
The recently completed 530,000 sf University of Texas Moody Center is the new home for men’s and women’s basketball at the Austin campus.
Green | Apr 26, 2022
Climate justice is the design challenge of our lives
As climate change accelerates, poor nations and disadvantaged communities are suffering the first and worst impacts.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 26, 2022
Fitness centers for multifamily housing: Advice from 'Dr. Fitness,' Karl Smith
In this episode for HorizonTV, Cortland's Karl Smith shares best practices for designing, siting, and operating fitness centers in apartment communities.
Mixed-Use | Apr 26, 2022
Downtown Phoenix to get hundreds of residential and student housing units
In fast-growing Phoenix, Arizona, a transit-oriented development called Central Station will sit adjacent to Arizona State University’s Downtown Phoenix campus.
Hotel Facilities | Apr 25, 2022
U.S. hotel construction pipeline up 2%, with 5,090 projects in the works
The total U.S. hotel construction pipeline stands at 5,090 projects and 606,302 rooms at the end of the first quarter of 2022, up 2% by projects, but down 3% by rooms, according to the Q1 2022 Construction Pipeline Trend Report for the United States from Lodging Econometrics (LE).
Codes and Standards | Apr 25, 2022
Supply chain constraints, shifting consumer demands adding cost pressures to office fit-outs
Cushman & Wakefield’s 2022 Americas Office Fit-Out Cost Guide found supply chain constraints and shifting consumer demands will continue to add pressure to costs, both in materials and labor.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Apr 25, 2022
Iowa's Field of Dreams to get boutique hotel, new baseball fields
A decade ago, Go the Distance Baseball formed to preserve the Iowa farm site where the 1989 movie Field of Dreams was filmed.