FMI, the largest provider of management consulting and investment banking to the engineering and construction industry, announces the release of the Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2011 Report.
Overall, in FMI’s latest forecast for construction put in place calls for 2% growth in 2011 and 6% for 2012 to $886.2 billion in total construction. In today’s economy that sounds like ambitious growth, but in constant 2006 dollars, that is only 3% growth for 2012 and a 1% drop in construction for 2011. To put it in perspective, in 2012 we will nearly return to 2003 levels of construction in current dollars.
Despite geo-political upheavals and constant debates about debt levels in the U.S. and Europe, budget brinksmanship in Congress, as well as a rash of natural disasters, construction markets are inching along. U.S. GDP is slow at 1.3%, but positive. Some of the unemployment problem is due to increased productivity in manufacturing and other service businesses, but, so far, there doesn’t seem to be much innovation and investment in new markets and jobs. Both consumers and businesses are rebuilding their savings and confidence in the economy, but that is a slow process with numerous setbacks. It seems that the largest barrier to moving the economy forward is fear that no one has a plan that will work. After the go-go years of high finance and exuberant housing markets, we now have high-risk aversion, and not without good reasons.
In the midst of these extremes, the inchworm economy is struggling along, and it will take some time to revive an industry the size of U.S. construction. There are positive signs to build on, for instance, if businesses with record profits now held in reserve decide that they can make more with their money by investing in new R&D, plants, equipment and personnel, then a new construction boom could follow. On the other hand, as economists like to say, if fear and risk aversion win out, those looking for a second dip of recession could find their wishes come true.
Hard-hit residential markets will start to improve, especially multi-family construction, which is becoming more desirable as banks continue to tighten financing requirements and homeowners are still reeling from the fears of foreclosure. Lodging, office and commercial construction will continue to struggle until more Americans have good jobs. BD+C
Related Stories
| Sep 16, 2010
Gehry’s Santa Monica Place gets a wave of changes
Omniplan, in association with Jerde Partnership, created an updated design for Santa Monica Place, a shopping mall designed by Frank Gehry in 1980.
| Sep 16, 2010
Green recreation/wellness center targets physical, environmental health
The 151,000-sf recreation and wellness center at California State University’s Sacramento campus, called the WELL (for “wellness, education, leisure, lifestyle”), has a fitness center, café, indoor track, gymnasium, racquetball courts, educational and counseling space, the largest rock climbing wall in the CSU system.
| Sep 13, 2010
Community college police, parking structure targets LEED Platinum
The San Diego Community College District's $1.555 billion construction program continues with groundbreaking for a 6,000-sf police substation and an 828-space, four-story parking structure at San Diego Miramar College.
| Sep 13, 2010
Campus housing fosters community connection
A 600,000-sf complex on the University of Washington's Seattle campus will include four residence halls for 1,650 students and a 100-seat cafe, 8,000-sf grocery store, and conference center with 200-seat auditorium for both student and community use.
| Sep 13, 2010
Second Time Around
A Building Team preserves the historic facade of a Broadway theater en route to creating the first green playhouse on the Great White Way.
| Sep 13, 2010
Palos Community Hospital plans upgrades, expansion
A laboratory, pharmacy, critical care unit, perioperative services, and 192 new patient beds are part of Palos (Ill.) Community Hospital's 617,500-sf expansion and renovation.
| Sep 13, 2010
China's largest single-phase hospital planned for Shanghai
RTKL's Los Angles office is designing the Shanghai Changzheng New Pudong Hospital, which will be the largest new hospital built in China in a single phase.
| Sep 13, 2010
Richmond living/learning complex targets LEED Silver
The 162,000-sf living/learning complex includes a residence hall with 122 units for 459 students with a study center on the ground level and communal and study spaces on each of the residential levels. The project is targeting LEED Silver.
