FMI, the largest provider of management consulting and investment banking to the engineering and construction industry, announces the release of the Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2011 Report.
Overall, in FMI’s latest forecast for construction put in place calls for 2% growth in 2011 and 6% for 2012 to $886.2 billion in total construction. In today’s economy that sounds like ambitious growth, but in constant 2006 dollars, that is only 3% growth for 2012 and a 1% drop in construction for 2011. To put it in perspective, in 2012 we will nearly return to 2003 levels of construction in current dollars.
Despite geo-political upheavals and constant debates about debt levels in the U.S. and Europe, budget brinksmanship in Congress, as well as a rash of natural disasters, construction markets are inching along. U.S. GDP is slow at 1.3%, but positive. Some of the unemployment problem is due to increased productivity in manufacturing and other service businesses, but, so far, there doesn’t seem to be much innovation and investment in new markets and jobs. Both consumers and businesses are rebuilding their savings and confidence in the economy, but that is a slow process with numerous setbacks. It seems that the largest barrier to moving the economy forward is fear that no one has a plan that will work. After the go-go years of high finance and exuberant housing markets, we now have high-risk aversion, and not without good reasons.
In the midst of these extremes, the inchworm economy is struggling along, and it will take some time to revive an industry the size of U.S. construction. There are positive signs to build on, for instance, if businesses with record profits now held in reserve decide that they can make more with their money by investing in new R&D, plants, equipment and personnel, then a new construction boom could follow. On the other hand, as economists like to say, if fear and risk aversion win out, those looking for a second dip of recession could find their wishes come true.
Hard-hit residential markets will start to improve, especially multi-family construction, which is becoming more desirable as banks continue to tighten financing requirements and homeowners are still reeling from the fears of foreclosure. Lodging, office and commercial construction will continue to struggle until more Americans have good jobs. BD+C
Related Stories
| May 7, 2012
4 more trends in higher-education facilities
Our series on college buildings continues with a look at new classroom designs, flexible space, collaboration areas, and the evolving role of the university library.
| May 7, 2012
Best AEC Firms: MHTN Architects nine decades of dedication to Utah
This 65-person design firm has served Salt Lake City and the state of Utah for the better part of 90 years.
| May 7, 2012
2012 BUILDING TEAM AWARDS: TD Ameritrade Park
The new stadium for the College World Series in Omaha combines big-league amenities within a traditional minor league atmosphere.
| May 7, 2012
2012 BUILDING TEAM AWARDS: Fort Belvoir Community Hospital
A new military hospital invokes evidence-based design to create a LEED-certified facility for the nation’s soldiers and their families.
| May 7, 2012
2012 BUILDING TEAM AWARDS: Audie L. Murphy VA Hospital
How a Building Team created a high-tech rehabilitation center for wounded veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
| May 3, 2012
2012 BUILDING TEAM AWARDS: Rush University Medical Center
This fully integrated Building Team opted for a multi-prime contracting strategy to keep construction going on Chicago’s Rush University Medical Center, despite the economic meltdown.
| May 3, 2012
U of Michigan team looking to create highly efficient building envelope designs
The system combines the use of sensors, novel construction materials, and utility control software in an effort to create technology capable of reducing a building’s carbon footprint.
| May 3, 2012
Best commercial modular buildings and marketing programs recognized
Judges scored entries on architectural excellence, technical innovation, cost effectiveness, energy efficiency, and calendar days to complete.
| May 3, 2012
Zero Energy Research Lab opens at North Texas
The living lab—the only one of its kind in Texas—is designed to test various technologies and systems in order to achieve a net-zero consumption of energy.
