FMI, the largest provider of management consulting and investment banking to the engineering and construction industry, announces the release of the Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2011 Report.
Overall, in FMI’s latest forecast for construction put in place calls for 2% growth in 2011 and 6% for 2012 to $886.2 billion in total construction. In today’s economy that sounds like ambitious growth, but in constant 2006 dollars, that is only 3% growth for 2012 and a 1% drop in construction for 2011. To put it in perspective, in 2012 we will nearly return to 2003 levels of construction in current dollars.
Despite geo-political upheavals and constant debates about debt levels in the U.S. and Europe, budget brinksmanship in Congress, as well as a rash of natural disasters, construction markets are inching along. U.S. GDP is slow at 1.3%, but positive. Some of the unemployment problem is due to increased productivity in manufacturing and other service businesses, but, so far, there doesn’t seem to be much innovation and investment in new markets and jobs. Both consumers and businesses are rebuilding their savings and confidence in the economy, but that is a slow process with numerous setbacks. It seems that the largest barrier to moving the economy forward is fear that no one has a plan that will work. After the go-go years of high finance and exuberant housing markets, we now have high-risk aversion, and not without good reasons.
In the midst of these extremes, the inchworm economy is struggling along, and it will take some time to revive an industry the size of U.S. construction. There are positive signs to build on, for instance, if businesses with record profits now held in reserve decide that they can make more with their money by investing in new R&D, plants, equipment and personnel, then a new construction boom could follow. On the other hand, as economists like to say, if fear and risk aversion win out, those looking for a second dip of recession could find their wishes come true.
Hard-hit residential markets will start to improve, especially multi-family construction, which is becoming more desirable as banks continue to tighten financing requirements and homeowners are still reeling from the fears of foreclosure. Lodging, office and commercial construction will continue to struggle until more Americans have good jobs. BD+C
Related Stories
| Jun 26, 2013
New York’s ‘Scaffold Law’ may be altered to place larger burden on workers
New York's Scaffold Law, which “places the burden of responsibility on the contractor to prove that the job site was safe for workers,” could be facing a major change.
| Jun 26, 2013
Commercial real estate execs eye multifamily, retail sectors for growth, says KPMG report
The multifamily, retail, and hospitality sectors are expected to lead commercial building growth, according to the 2013 KPMG Commercial Real Estate Outlook Survey.
| Jun 25, 2013
Mirvish, Gehry revise plans for triad of Toronto towers
A trio of mixed-use towers planned for an urban redevelopment project in Toronto has been redesigned by planners David Mirvish and Frank Gehry. The plan was announced last October but has recently been substantially revised.
| Jun 25, 2013
First look: Herzog & de Meuron's Jade Signature condo tower in Florida
Real estate developer Fortune International has released details of its new Jade Signature property, to be developed in Sunny Isles Beach near Miami. The luxury waterfront condo building will include 192 units in a 57-story building near high-end retail destinations and cultural venues.
| Jun 25, 2013
DC commission approves Gehry's redesign for Eisenhower memorial
Frank Gehry's updated for a new Dwight D. Eisenhower memorial in Washington, D.C., has been approved by the Eisenhower Memorial Commission, reports the Washington Post. The commission voted unanimously to approve the $110 million project, which has been gestating for 14 years.
| Jun 21, 2013
AIA report: Greater collaboration, stiffer competition among top trends in architecture
A new 34-page report from AIA highlights key trends in the architecture marketplace and their impact on business and growth.
| Jun 20, 2013
Virtual meetings enhance design of University at Buffalo Medical School
HOK designers in New York, St. Louis and Atlanta are using virtual meetings with their University at Buffalo (UB) client team to improve the design process for UB’s new School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences on the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus.
| Jun 19, 2013
Architects upbeat about the construction market
Following the first reversal into negative territory in ten months in April, AIA's Architecture Billings Index bounced back in May, reaching 52.9.
| Jun 19, 2013
NSF Sustainability begins verifying EPDs that can be used for LEED V4
NSF Sustainability has verified Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) for nylon carpet styles and colors manufactured by Mannington Commercial and for J+J Flooring Group’s Kinetex® flooring product and Invision brand modular styles that use eKo® backing.
| Jun 19, 2013
Florida is latest battleground over LEED standards centered on certified wood
A nationwide battle over forest certification standards continues to be played out nationally and in Florida with legislation passed this month.