Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| May 11, 2012
CRSI appoints Brace chairman
Stevens also elected to board of directors and vice-chair.
| May 11, 2012
Dempster named to AIA College of Fellows
Altoon Partners’ technical and construction services leader honored for his contributions.
| May 11, 2012
AIA launches education and training portal
New portal to host Contract Documents training, education resources in one convenient place.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 7 When Modern Becomes Historic: Preserving the Modernist Building Envelope
This AIA CES Discovery course explores the special reconstruction questions posed by Modern-era buildings.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 6 Energy Codes + Reconstructed Buildings: 2012 and Beyond
Our experts analyze the next generation of energy and green building codes and how they impact reconstruction.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 5 LEED-EB and Green Globes CIEB: Rating Sustainable Reconstruction
Certification for existing buildings under these two rating programs has overtaken that for new construction.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 4 Business Case for High-Performance Reconstructed Buildings
Five reconstruction projects in one city make a bottom-line case for reconstruction across the country.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 3 How Building Technologies Contribute to Reconstruction Advances
Building Teams are employing a wide variety of components and systems in their reconstruction projects.
| May 10, 2012
Chapter 2 Exemplary High-Performance Reconstruction Projects
Several case studies show how to successfully renovate existing structures into high-performance buildings.
| May 9, 2012
Chapter 1 Reconstruction: ‘The 99% Solution’ for Energy Savings in Buildings
As a share of total construction activity reconstruction has been on the rise in the U.S. and Canada in the last few years, which creates a golden opportunity for extensive energy savings.
