Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| Mar 11, 2011
Blockbuster remodel transforms Omaha video store into a bank
A former Hollywood Video store in Omaha, Neb., was renovated and repurposed as the SAC Federal Credit Union, Ames Branch. Architects at Leo A Daly transformed the outdated 5,000-sf retail space into a modern facility by wrapping the exterior in poplar siding and adding a new glass storefront that floods the interior with natural light.
| Mar 11, 2011
Historic McKim Mead White facility restored at Columbia University
Faculty House, a 1923 McKim Mead White building on Columbia University’s East Campus, could no longer support the school’s needs, so the historic 38,000-sf building was transformed into a modern faculty dining room, graduate student meeting center, and event space for visiting lecturers, large banquets, and alumni organizations.
| Mar 11, 2011
Mixed-income retirement community in Maryland based on holistic care
The Green House Residences at Stadium Place in Waverly, Md., is a five-story, 40,600-sf, mixed-income retirement community based on a holistic continuum of care concept developed by Dr. Bill Thomas. Each of the four residential floors houses a self-contained home for 12 residents that includes 12 bedrooms/baths organized around a common living/social area called the “hearth,” which includes a kitchen, living room with fireplace, and dining area.
| Mar 11, 2011
Construction of helicopter hangars in South Carolina gets off the ground
Construction is under way on a $26 million aviation support facility for South Carolina National Guard helicopters. Hendrick Construction, the project’s Charlotte, N.C.-based GC, is building the 111,000-sf Donaldson Hangar facility on the 30-acre South Carolina Technology & Aviation Center, Greenville.
| Mar 11, 2011
Texas A&M mixed-use community will focus on green living
HOK, Realty Appreciation, and Texas A&M University are working on the Urban Living Laboratory, a 1.2-million-sf mixed-use project owned by the university. The five-phase, live-work-play project will include offices, retail, multifamily apartments, and two hotels.
| Mar 11, 2011
Chicago office building will serve tenants and historic church
The Alter Group is partnering with White Oak Realty Partners to develop a 490,000-sf high-performance office building in Chicago’s West Loop. The tower will be located on land owned by Old St. Patrick’s Church (a neighborhood landmark that survived the Chicago Fire of 1871) that’s currently being used as a parking lot.
| Mar 11, 2011
Community sports center in Nashville features NCAA-grade training facility
A multisport community facility in Nashville featuring a training facility that will meet NCAA Division I standards is being constructed by St. Louis-based Clayco and Chicago-based Pinnacle.
| Mar 11, 2011
Slam dunk for the University of Nebraska’s basketball arena
The University of Nebraska men’s and women’s basketball programs will have a new home beginning in 2013. Designed by the DLR Group, the $344 million West Haymarket Civic Arena in Lincoln, Neb., will have 16,000 seats, suites, club amenities, loge, dedicated locker rooms, training rooms, and support space for game operations.
| Mar 10, 2011
How AEC Professionals Are Using Social Media
You like LinkedIn. You’re not too sure about blogs. For many AEC professionals, it’s still wait-and-see when it comes to social media.
| Mar 7, 2011
Sika Sarnafil announces 2010 roofing Contractor Project of the Year winners
Sika Sarnafil announced winners of its 2010 Contractor Project of the Year Competition. Twelve contractors were recognized for outstanding workmanship in completing a project using a Sika Sarnafil thermoplastic membrane for roofing or waterproofing applications. A winner and two finalists were chosen from each of four different categories: Low Slope, Steep Slope, Waterproofing and Sustainability.