Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| May 15, 2012
One World Trade Center goes to new height of sustainability
One of the biggest challenges in developing this concrete mixture was meeting the Port Authority of New York/New Jersey’s strict requirement for the replacement of cement.
| May 15, 2012
Suffolk selected for Rosenwald Elementary modernization project
The 314-student station elementary school will undergo extensive modernization.
| May 15, 2012
Don’t be insulated from green building
Examining the roles of insulation and manufacturing in sustainability’s growth.
| May 15, 2012
National Tradesmen Day set for Sept. 21
IRWIN Tools invites the nation to honor "The Real Working Hands that Build America and Keep it Running Strong".
| May 15, 2012
SAGE Electrochromics to become wholly owned subsidiary of Saint-Gobain
This deal will help SAGE expand into international markets, develop new products and complete construction of the company’s new, state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Faribault, Minn.
| May 14, 2012
Codes harvest rainwater
IAPMO’s Green Plumbing and Mechanical Code Supplement could make rainwater harvesting systems commonplace by clearly outlining safe installation and maintenance practices.
| May 14, 2012
Plumbing research coalition to study drainline transport issue
The effort is aimed at determining if decreasing levels of water flow––caused by increasingly efficient plumbing fixtures––are sufficient to clear debris from plumbing pipes.
| May 14, 2012
SOM to break ground on supertall structure in China
The 1,740-feet (530-meter) tall tower will house offices, 300 service apartments and a 350-room, 5-star hotel beneath an arched top.
| May 14, 2012
Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture design Seoul’s Dancing Dragons
Supertall two-tower complex located in Seoul’s Yongsan International Business District.
| May 14, 2012
SMPS and Deltek announce alliance
A/E/C industry leaders partner to advance technology’s role in design firm marketing and business development.