Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| May 16, 2013
Chicago unveils $1.1 billion plan for DePaul arena, Navy Pier upgrades
Hoping to send a loud message that Chicago is serious about luring tourism and entertainment spending, Mayor Rahm Emanuel has released details of two initiatives that have been developing for more than a year and that it says will mean $1.1 billion in investment in the McCormick Place and Navy Pier areas.
| May 16, 2013
Michael R. Bohn named Executive VP at Gilbane
Gilbane has promoted Michael R. Bohn to executive vice president. With over 28 years of service to the company and leadership roles on such high-profile projects as the University of Michigan Biomedical Science Building and the University of Chicago Medical Center, Bohn will now have responsibility for Gilbane’s New York and Midwest business units.
| May 15, 2013
Schneider Electric announces Global Xperience Efficiency Events for 2013
Schneider Electric’s Xperience Efficiency series will begin with events in the United States, China, Colombia, Brazil and Russia.
| May 15, 2013
Center for Green Schools, Architecture for Humanity release new tool for green schools
The 70-page guide demystifies the processes of identifying building improvement opportunities and finance and implementation strategies.
| May 14, 2013
Paints and coatings: The latest trends in sustainability
When it comes to durability, a 50-year building design ideally should include 50-year coatings. Many building products consume substantial amounts of energy, water, and petrochemicals during manufacture, but they can make up for it in the operations phase. The same should be expected from architectural coatings.
| May 14, 2013
Advanced turbines generate 6X more energy than conventional models
US-based wind energy company SheerWind just unveiled the INVELOX – a tunnel-based wind turbine that can produce up to 600% more power than traditional wind turbines.
| May 14, 2013
Easy net-zero energy buildings [infographic]
"Be a Zero Hero" infographic educates building industry professionals on ultra energy-efficient structural insulated panel construction
| May 9, 2013
10 high-efficiency plumbing fixtures
From a "no sweat" toilet to a deep-well lavatory, here's a round up of the latest high-efficiency plumbing fixtures.
| May 9, 2013
Post-tornado Greensburg, Kan., leads world in LEED-certified buildings per capita
Six years after a tornado virtually wiped out the town, Greensburg, Kan., is the world's leading community in LEED-certified buildings per capita.
| May 8, 2013
Preventable curtain wall failures - AIA/CES course
In many cases, curtain wall failures are caused by fairly simple errors that occur during the fabrication and installation process. This presentation will highlight common errors and when they typically occur.