Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| Dec 29, 2014
HealthSpot station merges personalized healthcare with videoconferencing [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
The HealthSpot station is an 8x5-foot, ADA-compliant mobile kiosk that lets patients access a network of board-certified physicians through interactive videoconferencing and medical devices. It was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 28, 2014
Robots, drones, and printed buildings: The promise of automated construction
Building Teams across the globe are employing advanced robotics to simplify what is inherently a complex, messy process—construction.
BIM and Information Technology | Dec 28, 2014
The Big Data revolution: How data-driven design is transforming project planning
There are literally hundreds of applications for deep analytics in planning and design projects, not to mention the many benefits for construction teams, building owners, and facility managers. We profile some early successful applications.
| Dec 28, 2014
AIA course: Enhancing interior comfort while improving overall building efficacy
Providing more comfortable conditions to building occupants has become a top priority in today’s interior designs. This course is worth 1.0 AIA LU/HSW.
| Dec 28, 2014
6 trends steering today's college residence halls
University students want more in a residence hall than just a place to sleep. They want a space that reflects their style of living and learning.
| Dec 28, 2014
Using energy modeling to increase project value [AIA course]
This course, worth 1.0 AIA LU/HSW, explores how to increase project value through energy modeling, as well as how to conduct quick payback and net present value studies to identify which energy strategies are most viable for the project.
| Dec 28, 2014
The lowdown on LODs: Bringing clarity to BIM
These days, BIM is par for the course across most facets of design. But a lot of the conversation surrounding BIM still lacks clarity due to ambiguous terminology, a lack of clear-cut guiding illustrations, and widely varying implementation, writes GS&P's John Scannell.
| Dec 28, 2014
The future of airport terminal design: destination status, five-star amenities, stress-free travel
Taking a cue from the hospitality industry, airport executives are seeking to make their facilities feel more like destinations, writes HOK's Richard Gammon.
| Dec 28, 2014
10 key design interventions for a healthier, happier, and more productive workplace
Numerous studies and mountains of evidence confirm what common sense has long suggested: healthy, happier workers are more productive, more likely to collaborate with colleagues, and more likely to innovate in ways that benefit the bottom line, writes Gensler's Kirsten Ritchie.
| Dec 28, 2014
7 fresh retail design strategies
Generic ‘boxes’ and indifferent service won’t cut it with today’s savvy shoppers. Retailers are seeking a technology-rich-but-handmade vibe, plus greater speed to market and adaptability.