Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| Feb 18, 2014
Illinois leads Top 10 states for LEED in annual USGBC ranking
The U.S. Green Building Council has released its ranking of the Top 10 States for LEED, the world’s most widely used and recognized green building rating system.
| Feb 18, 2014
Study: 90% of healthcare providers say Affordable Care Act is 'step forward,' but major revisions needed
Providers are excited about opportunities to address long-term health issues in the U.S., but worries about the transition persist, according to a new study by Mortenson Construction.
| Feb 17, 2014
Developer plans to 'crowdfund' extended stay hotel in Manhattan
Want to own a piece of Manhattan hotel real estate? Developer Rodrigo Nino is inviting individual investors to put up $100,000 each for his latest project, 17 John.
| Feb 14, 2014
ASHRAE, Green Grid team up on energy-efficiency guide for data centers
Vendor-neutral publication examines aspects of the popular power usage effectiveness (PUE) metric.
| Feb 14, 2014
Scrap tires used to boost masonry blocks at Missouri University of S&T
Research could lead to blocks that use waste material and have seismic and insulating benefits.
| Feb 14, 2014
Giant interactive pinwheel adds fun to museum exterior
The proposed design for the Santa Cruz Museum of Art and History features a 10-foot pinwheel that can be activated by passersby.
| Feb 14, 2014
First look: Kentucky's Rupp Arena to get re-clad as part of $310M makeover
Rupp Arena will get a 40-foot high glass façade and a new concourse, but will retain many of its iconic design elements.
| Feb 14, 2014
The Technology Report 2014: Top tech tools and trends for AEC professionals
In this special five-part report, Building Design+Construction explores how Building Teams throughout the world are utilizing advanced robotics, 3D printers, drones, data-driven design, and breakthroughs in building information modeling to gain efficiencies and create better buildings.
| Feb 13, 2014
Why you should start with a builder
They say the best way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time. Expanding your building or constructing a new structure for your business, church, or school isn’t all that different. Attacking it is best done in small, deliberate pieces.
| Feb 13, 2014
Related Companies, LargaVista partner to develop mixed-use tower in SoHo
The site is located at the gateway to the booming SoHo retail market, where Class A office space is scarce yet highly in demand.