Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
Architects | Sep 19, 2017
What we talk about when we talk about placemaking
What does Good Growth mean and how do we set about achieving it?
Architects | Sep 13, 2017
Leo A Daly hires hospitality-design veteran to lead its Dallas office
Ken Martin views this sector as an incubator of innovation.
Museums | Sep 8, 2017
CAF announces plans for 20,000-sf Chicago Architecture Center to be built on East Wacker Drive
The Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill-designed space will open in summer 2018.
Architects | Sep 6, 2017
Fake architect caught in ‘Operation Vandelay Industries’ sentenced to 2 1/3 to 7 years in prison
The fake architect must also pay a $115,000 restitution.
Architects | Sep 6, 2017
Top 110 university architecture firms
Perkins+Will, Gensler, and CannonDesign top BD+C’s ranking of the nation’s largest university sector architecture and AE firms, as reported in the 2017 Giants 300 Report.
Contractors | Sep 6, 2017
Following the money: G702 progress payment certifications
There is no single method of calculating progress payments, but the most common formula is the percentage of completion applied to the total contract price, less a retainage which is held by the owner until final acceptance of the project.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 5, 2017
Free WiFi, meeting rooms most popular business services amenities in multifamily developments
Complimentary, building-wide WiFi is more or less a given for marketing purposes in the multifamily arena.
Architects | Sep 1, 2017
5 reasons why AEC firms need to focus on employer branding
Not to be confused with the branding of your firm overall, your employer brand is defined by your reputation as a workplace.
Healthcare Facilities | Sep 1, 2017
Caring for caregivers
Many healthcare organizations are increasingly focused on designing amenities, policies, and workplaces to better support their clinicians, health providers, and administrators.
Architects | Aug 31, 2017
How Instagram is changing the design industry
The digital and physical worlds are colliding. How will social media platforms influence the way we design spaces?