Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
Architects | Sep 30, 2021
Riding the great AEC resignation wave
More people than ever are reconsidering what work and career mean. What can AEC firms do to recruit and retain workers in this changing workplace environment? Karl Feldman, Partner with Hinge Marketing, discusses ideas and strategies with BD+C's John Caulfield in this exclusive interview for HorizonTV.
AEC Business Innovation | Sep 28, 2021
Getting diversity, equity, and inclusion going in AEC firms
As a professional services organization built on attracting the best and brightest talent, VIATechnik relies on finding new ways to do just that. Here are some tips that we’ve learned through our diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) journey.
Contractors | Sep 23, 2021
California office/lab construction site earns world’s first TRUE preconstruction zero-waste certification
Located on a former landfill, the Genesis Marina project site is expected to divert over 90% of its waste from landfills and incineration.
Contractors | Sep 23, 2021
No summer vacation for the GC Kraus Anderson
Since late July, it has completed enlargements and improvements of three schools and a clinic, and the creation of a police-fire station complex.
Contractors | Sep 23, 2021
Balfour Beatty’s outreach to veterans pays dividends in leadership and growth
Contracts for work it’s done for the San Diego Unified School District have extended to several disabled vet-owned businesses.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 22, 2021
11 notable multifamily projects to debut in 2021
A residence for older LGBTQ+ persons, a P3 student housing building, and a converted masonic lodge highlight the multifamily developments to debut this year.
Data Centers | Sep 22, 2021
Wasted energy from data centers could power nearby buildings
A Canadian architecture firm comes up with a concept for a community that’s part of a direct-current microgrid.
Hotel Facilities | Sep 22, 2021
Will hotel developers finally embrace modular construction?
Last May, MiTek, a construction software and building services company that’s part of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate, formed a partnership with Danny Forster & Architecture to promote modular design and construction.
Contractors | Sep 3, 2021
Construction demand continues to outpace the industry’s workforce capacity
Skilled worker shortages are causing project delays, and even cancellations, according to latest AGC-Autodesk survey.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 1, 2021
Top 10 outdoor amenities at multifamily housing developments for 2021
Fire pits, lounge areas, and covered parking are the most common outdoor amenities at multifamily housing developments, according to new research from Multifamily Design+Construction.