Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
Building Team | Apr 22, 2022
EarthCam Adds Senior Leadership Roles to Facilitate Rapid Growth
EarthCam today announced several new leadership positions as it scales up to accommodate increasing demand for its webcam technology and services.
Architects | Apr 22, 2022
Top 10 green building projects for 2022
The American Institute of Architects' Committee on the Environment (COTE) has announced its COTE Top Ten Awards for significant achievements in advancing climate action.
Mixed-Use | Apr 22, 2022
San Francisco replaces a waterfront parking lot with a new neighborhood
A parking lot on San Francisco’s waterfront is transforming into Mission Rock—a new neighborhood featuring rental units, offices, parks, open spaces, retail, and parking.
Legislation | Apr 21, 2022
NIMBYism in the Sunbelt stymies new apartment development
Population growth in Sunbelt metro areas is driving demand for new apartment development, but resistance is growing against these projects.
Building Team | Apr 20, 2022
White House works with state, local governments to bolster building performance standards
The former head of the U.S. Green Building Council says the Biden Administration’s formation of the National Building Performance Standards Coalition is a “tremendous” step in the right direction to raise building performance standards in the U.S.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2022
Pace of demand for design services rapidly accelerates
Demand for design services in March expanded sharply from February according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Multifamily Housing | Apr 20, 2022
A Frankfurt tower gives residents greenery-framed views
In Frankfurt, Germany, the 27-floor EDEN tower boasts an exterior “living wall system”: 186,000 plants that cover about 20 percent of the building’s facade.
AEC Tech | Apr 19, 2022
VDC maturity and the key to driving better, more predictable outcomes
While more stakeholders across the AEC value chain embrace the concept of virtual design and construction, what is driving the vastly different results that organizations achieve? The answer lies within an assessment of VDC maturity.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 19, 2022
6 trends to watch in healthcare design
As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, IMEG’s healthcare leaders from across the country are seeing several emerging trends that are poised to have wide-ranging impacts on facility design and construction. Following are six of the trends and strategies they expect to become more commonplace in 2022 and the years to come.
Energy-Efficient Design | Apr 19, 2022
A prefab second skin can make old apartments net zero
A German startup is offering a new way for old buildings to potentially reach net-zero status: adding a prefabricated second skin.