The AEC industry is heading into 2010 in better shape than was the case a year ago, according to the 2010 AEC Industry Outlook: Strategy and Insight for Design & Construction Firms, a new forecast released by ZweigWhite this month.
A significant turnaround for the commercial market isn't anticipated until 2011, but a modest pickup is expected in late 2010. Some sectors are faring better than others—and will continue to do so. Markets to watch for 2010: healthcare, education, and mixed-use.
Following is an overview of the major commercial AEC markets, based on the ZweigWhite report.
Three sectors showing growth
Healthcare. This sector's growth over the past few years is expected to continue for 2010 and beyond. Although some slowing is expected, healthcare is still considered the hottest market for AEC firms. Behind the market's growth: rising numbers of outpatient procedures, aging population, declining hospital infrastructure, consolidation of healthcare systems, BIM and other technologies, sustainable design, and security and disaster preparedness.
The value of healthcare construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $48.5 billion, an increase of 1.2% from 2009 levels.
Education. Education is one of the largest sectors for AEC firms, and it's growing, making K-12 and higher education markets two of the industry's best prospects. The markets aren't expected to slow significantly, but they took big hits in 2008 and 2009 and are not immune to the downturn.
For 2010, the education sector outlook is mixed, with high school construction looking strong and college and university construction to continue apace to meet projected enrollment increases through 2017. Project work is also expected to be mixed—some new construction and some expansions and renovations to existing facilities.
Overall, the value of all school construction to be put in place for 2010 will top $99.5 billion.
Mixed-use. Another bright spot in the industry. Mixed-use projects are gaining in popularity because the building type ties into New Urbanist principals, creates more livable communities, and is being used as a catalyst for city redevelopment.
Construction spending on mixed-use projects is not tracked, so predictions for 2010 are unavailable. Mixed-use projects, however, aren't immune to a slow economy because many incorporate components from markets that are down, such as lodging and retail.
The rest of the story
Lodging. One of the hardest-hit commercial sectors, lodging is expected to continue its sluggish pace in 2010. The decline, however, is viewed as cyclical, and a recovery is anticipated for 2011.
The value of lodging construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $20.1 billion, a decrease of 12.8% from 2009 levels.
Manufacturing. Construction of manufacturing and industrial facilities also slowed significantly because of the recession, and 2010 is expected to be another down year. Rents are expected to decline through 2010. Market recovery isn't expected until 2011, and then is expected to be slow.
The value of manufacturing construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $59.6 billion, a decrease of 19% from 2009 levels.
Multifamily. This sector was hit hard by the recession, and a slow 2010 is expected, with some growth anticipated in 2011. Multifamily starts are notoriously volatile, but they are expected to reach 126,000 for 2010, down from 130,000 in 2009. Looking ahead to 2011, multifamily starts are expected to average 150,000.
Office buildings. With so many layoffs, the nation's reduced workforce is the biggest drag on the office sector. An improving economy signals a turnaround—although the rebound will happen slowly and cautiously. Vacancy rates are expected to remain high during 2010 and then start to decrease in 2011.
The value of office construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $46.6 billion, a decrease of 13.5% from 2009 levels.
The ZweigWhite 2010 AEC Industry Outlook (214-page PDF, $295; free Executive Summary) may be ordered at: http://www.zweigwhite.com/p-858-2010-aec-industry-outlook-strategy-and-insight-for-design-construction-firms.php?mtn=F3658E
Related Stories
Building Materials | Oct 19, 2023
New white papers offer best choices in drywall, flooring, and insulation for embodied carbon and health impacts
“Embodied Carbon and Material Health in Insulation” and “Embodied Carbon and Material Health in Gypsum Drywall and Flooring,” by architecture and design firm Perkins&Will in partnership with the Healthy Building Network, advise on how to select the best low-carbon products with the least impact on human health.
Products and Materials | Oct 10, 2023
‘Works with WELL’ product licensing program launched by International WELL Building Institute
The International WELL Building Institute (IWBI) recently launched the Works with WELL product licensing program. Works with Well certification allows manufacturers to demonstrate that their products align with WELL strategies.
Products and Materials | Sep 29, 2023
Top building products for September 2023
BD+C Editors break down 15 of the top building products this month, from smart light switches to glass wall systems.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Sep 22, 2023
5 building façade products for your next multifamily project
A building's façade acts as a first impression of the contents within. For the multifamily sector, they have the potential to draw in tenants on aesthetics alone.
Products and Materials | Aug 31, 2023
Top building products for August 2023
BD+C Editors break down 15 of the top building products this month, from frameless windscreens to smart fixture mount sensors.
Products and Materials | Jul 31, 2023
Top building products for July 2023
BD+C Editors break down 15 of the top building products this month, from cleanroom doors to window storm protection systems.
Mass Timber | Jul 11, 2023
5 solutions to acoustic issues in mass timber buildings
For all its advantages, mass timber also has a less-heralded quality: its acoustic challenges. Exposed wood ceilings and floors have led to issues with excessive noise. Mass timber experts offer practical solutions to the top five acoustic issues in mass timber buildings.
Building Materials | Jun 14, 2023
Construction input prices fall 0.6% in May 2023
Construction input prices fell 0.6% in May compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index data released today. Nonresidential construction input prices declined 0.5% for the month.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Jun 5, 2023
27 important questions about façade leakage
Walter P Moore’s Darek Brandt discusses the key questions building owners and property managers should be asking to determine the health of their building's façade.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 27, 2023
Watch: Specifying materials in multifamily housing projects
A trio of multifamily housing experts discusses trends in materials in their latest developments. Topics include the need to balance aesthetics and durability, the advantages of textured materials, and the benefits of biophilia.
