Despite rising demand, the construction industry is expected to see a serious falloff in building starts, according Jones Lang Lasalle’s Construction Trends and Midyear Update, which JLL released this morning.
The report takes a fresh look at the industry’s overall health, the current availability and pricing for labor and materials, and the direction that total construction costs may be headed.
![Global disruptions](/sites/default/files/inline-images/JLL%20disruptions.png)
JLL still sees the construction sector in “uncharted economic territory,” as global threats remain unrealized “but full of disruptive potential” even as construction continues at breakneck speed to address post-pandemic built-environment needs. Consequently, JLL updated its projections for three of the seven barometers it tracks (see chart).
![employment vs. building activity](/sites/default/files/inline-images/JLL%20Construction%20activity.png)
![JLL's revised construction forecast](/sites/default/files/inline-images/JLL%20revised%20forecast.png)
The outlook’s four key takeaways are:
•Industry Health: Financing constraints have driven a rapid decline in construction starts over the last quarter;
•Labor: Firms are prioritizng talent retention strategies;
•Materials: Supply chain issues have largely stabilized, and future cost increases should be manageable;
•Total Costs: Firms' responses to the impending slowdown have led to a drop in total costs during the third quarter, prompting JLL to revise its total cost growth forecast down to 2-4%, from 4-6% in the first half of the year.
Interest rates are curtailing building starts
![Labor demand outruns availability](/sites/default/files/inline-images/JLL%20Labor%20demand.png)
Based on midyear data, JLL’s forecast for construction value put in place aligns with its previous expectations. Overall, industry sentiment is strong, but construction is expected to cool depending on resolution or escalation of threats ranging from inflation to geopolitical turmoil. JLL’s revised forecast anticipates an 18% decline in building activity, compared with its 5% growth forecast for the first half of the year.
Rising interest rates are slowing construction starts. But demand for infrastructure and other non-building projects remains strong. JLL predicts interest rates will peak near the end of this year, and construction activity should rev up, “with specialization and complexity management playing vital roles.“
JLL continues to stand by its forecast of 5-7% growth in labor costs. Job openings remain high, and unemployment is unusually low. There is “persistent” wage competition for skilled workers. However, contractors remain confident about their ability to weather the expected downturn. JLL foresees minimal disruption in sectors buoyed by public sector spending; other sectors could see more of a dropoff, though. Construction activity per employee will remain above pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable future.
Total costs are stabilizing
![Materials costs vary by commodity](/sites/default/files/inline-images/JLL%20Materials%20monthly.png)
![Most prices on a downward trajectory](/sites/default/files/inline-images/JLL%20Materials%20YoY.png)
JLL also believes that its prediction of a 3-5% increase in materials costs remains on target. Commodities are exhibiting varying price fluctuations. Lead times were high in the first half of 2023, especially for MEP goods, making it harder for contractors to keep up with electrification and data center demand. Steel, concrete, glass, and plastic products’ price movements are also above historic levels. JLL expects materials costs to continue to rise at their current modest (single-digit) pace, having less impact on demand. But summer wildfires are likely to impact the supply of Canadian softwood.
Mixing these factors, JLL concludes that total construction costs have stabilized, having recorded the slowest period of growth (and the first declines) since the immediate aftermath of COVID-19 being declared a global emergency. Firms are navigating wage hikes, and expect sales and profit to grow modestly and stabilize, respectively. Labor retention is a priority to hold the line on costs. JLL adjusts its projection for total cost growth down to between 2-4%, from 4-6% in the first half.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 2, 2020
Architects, health experts release strategies, tools for safely reopening buildings
AIA issues three new and enhanced tools for reducing risk of COVID-19 transmission in buildings.
Market Data | Jun 2, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 2, 2020
New Luxembourg office complex breaks ground and nonresidential construction spending falls.
Market Data | Jun 1, 2020
Nonresidential construction spending falls in April
Of the 16 subcategories, 13 were down on a monthly basis.
Market Data | Jun 1, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 1, 2020
Energy storage as an amenity and an entry-point for wellness screening everywhere.
Market Data | May 29, 2020
House-passed bill making needed improvements to paycheck protection program will allow construction firms to save more jobs
Construction official urges senate and White House to quickly pass and sign into law the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act.
Market Data | May 29, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 29, 2020
Using lighting IoT data to inform a safer office reentry strategy and Ghafari joins forces with Eview 360.
Market Data | May 27, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 28, 2020
Biophilic design on the High Line and the office market could be a COVID-19 casualty.
Market Data | May 27, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 27, 2020
AIA's COTE Top Ten Awards and OSHA now requires employers to track COVID-19 cases.
Market Data | May 26, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 26, 2020
Apple's new Austin hotel and is CLT really a green solution?
Market Data | May 21, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 21, 2020
'Creepy' tech invades post-pandemic offices, and meet the new darling of commercial real estate.