In an era of mixed signals, architects embrace cautious optimism [2013 Giants 300 Report]

Are architecture firms finally pulling out of the doldrums? The answer is a tentative yes, according to AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA.

Baker points to the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index, a leading economic indicator of construction activity that reflects the approximate nine- to 12-month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The ABI experienced its first drop in nine months last April (to 48.6), but bounced back in May to 52.9 (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.1, up slightly from the reading of 58.5 in April.

“This rebound is a good sign for the design and construction industry and hopefully means that April’s negative dip was a blip rather than a sign of challenging times to come,” says Baker. “But there is a resounding sense of uncertainty in the marketplace—from clients to investors and an overall lack of confidence in the general economy—that is continuing to act as a governor on the business development engine for architecture firms.”

On a regional basis, the Northeast (at 53.7), West (52.1), and South (50.9) were still positive, while the Midwest lagged, at 47.5. Multifamily residential remains strong, at 52.8, as do institutional (52.2) and mixed practice (51.0), but the commercial/industrial sector is still hurting, at 47.5.

TOP ARCHITECTURE FIRMS

2012 Total Revenue ($)

1 Gensler $807,143,550

2 Perkins+Will $360,300,000

3 NBBJ $187,017,000

4 Kohn Pedersen Fox Associates $153,821,100

5 Perkins Eastman $145,000,000

6 Callison $134,112,565

7 ZGF Architects $107,412,274

8 Corgan $85,377,040

9 Populous $84,000,000

10 HMC Architects $77,986,678

SEE FULL LIST

TOP ARCHITECTURE/ENGINEERING FIRMS

2012 Total Revenue ($)

1 Stantec $467,254,421

2 HOK $406,780,000

3 HDR Architecture $325,900,000

4 Skidmore, Owings & Merrill $281,686,000

5 IBI Group $252,552,343

6 HKS $240,300,000

7 RTKL Associates $202,823,000

8 Cannon Design $202,000,000

9 SmithGroupJJR $166,600,000

10 DLR Group $116,400,000

SEE FULL LIST

“All the roadblocks are easing a bit, but they’re still they’re,” says Baker. “Financing is still a big problem, and banks are still hesitant to make a real estate loan. They’re still gun-shy, so they’re setting the bar high for loan approvals.”

SEVERAL SECTORS STILL CLICKING

Looking more closely at specific sectors over the next three years, Baker sees vacancy rates for apartments increasing, from 5.0% today to 5.2% in 2015, and rental rates declining, from 3.8% now to 2.8% in a couple of years—in other words, somewhat negative fundamentals for the multifamily sector.

Giants 300 coverage of Architecture Firms brought to you by Sage www.sageglass.com

Similarly, revenue per available room at hotels is expected to drop from a high of 6.8% in 2012 and 5.5% currently, to 5.0% in 2014 and 2015. But occupancy rates should remain steady, in the 63% range.

Overall, Baker foresees positive fundamentals for several key sectors. The office market should witness declining vacancy rates, from 15.4% in 2012 to 13.6% in 2015, and improved rental rates increases, to 4.0% over the next two years, from 3.5% today. Ditto for retail and industrial/warehouse, where market fundamentals also look positive through 2015, in Baker’s analysis.

As for the healthcare sector, the AIA economist says that, in his opinion, the Affordable Care Act can only benefit construction of new facilities. “With 30 or 40 million more Americans coming on to the system, it’s hard to come up with a scenario that’s bad for healthcare construction,” he says. “You’ve got to increase it.”

As for education, Baker says he wonders if universities are going to be able to keep up the construction wars for fancy new student unions, recreation centers, and the like. “The little echo boom demographic bubble has passed, and institutions are going to have to be more reasonable” in what they can afford to build, he says. In the K-12 arena, Baker says many schools that were built in the ’60s and ’70s may have to be replaced, whether or not the demographics support the case.

GOOD TIME FOR DESIGN FIRMS TO GET INTO ACTION

What do all these numbers mean to architecture firms, whether a boutique or midsize emerging firm, or a Giants300 market leader?

According to Baker, larger firms survived the downturn the best. “We heard a lot of stories of clients trading up, getting big firms to do work for them, firms that wouldn’t have bothered with such clients in the past,” he says.

Baker sees the possibility of more consolidation in coming years. “The classic case was the big engineering/architecture firm buying up an architecture firm to broaden the base of its offerings,” says Baker. He thinks more alliances may also be formed in years ahead—an East Coast firm that’s strong in the education sector linking up with a West Coast healthcare leader, for example, to strengthen their overall positions in the national market.

Baker, who has been through his share of recessions in his 28-year career as an economist, remains optimistic about the profession of architecture. “I do think it’s a great time to be in the profession, and if you own a firm, you’re going to see modest to firm growth in the next few years.”

The downside risk of taking aggressive action has begun to diminish, says Baker. His advice to management of architectural firms: “To the extent that they’ve been thinking about doing something for a while—opening a new office in a promising geographic market, making an acquisition—this is probably a good time to pull the trigger.”

Read BD+C's full Giants 300 Report

In February, Amsterdam saw the opening of a new underwater bicycle parking facility. Located in the heart of the city—next to Amsterdam Central Station and under the river IJ (Amsterdam’s waterfront)—the facility, dubbed IJboulevard, has parking spots for over 4,000 bicycles, freeing up space on the street.

Healthcare Facilities | Mar 22, 2023

New Jersey’s new surgical tower features state’s first intraoperative MRI system

Hackensack (N.J.) University Medical Center recently opened its 530,000-sf Helena Theurer Pavilion, a nine-story surgical and intensive care tower designed by RSC Architects and Page. The county’s first hospital, Hackensack University Medical Center, a 781-bed nonprofit teaching and research hospital, was founded in 1888.

GBBN is currently partnering with Bon Secours Mercy Health and Danis Construction on a healthcare project that is using onsite prefabrication methods, with impressive results.

Project + Process Innovation | Mar 22, 2023

Onsite prefabrication for healthcare construction: It's more than a process, it's a partnership

Prefabrication can help project teams navigate an uncertain market. GBBN's Mickey LeRoy, AIA, ACHA, LEED AP, explains the difference between onsite and offsite prefabrication methods for healthcare construction projects.

Two leading women in construction events unite to create the Women in Residential + Commercial Construction conference (WIR+CC)

Women in Design+Construction | Mar 21, 2023

Two leading women in construction events unite in 2023

The new Women in Residential + Commercial Construction Conference (WIR+CC) will take place in Nashville, Tenn., October 25-27, 2023. Combining these two long-standing events aligns with our mission to create an event most impactful for women in the $1.4 trillion U.S. commercial and residential design and construction industry.

The first all-mass timber office building in Wilmington, N.C., is under construction. Rendering courtesy LS3P

Mass Timber | Mar 19, 2023

A 100% mass timber construction project is under way in North Carolina

An office building 100% made from mass timber has started construction within the Live Oak Bank campus in Wilmington, N.C. The 67,000-sf structure, a joint building venture between the GCs Swinerton and Wilmington-headquartered Monteith Construction, is scheduled for completion in early 2024.

Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 17, 2023

Aurora, Colo., recreation center features city’s first indoor field house, unobstructed views of the Rocky Mountains

In January, design firm Populous and the City of Aurora, Colo. marked the opening of the Southeast Aurora Recreation Center and Fieldhouse. The 77,000-sf facility draws design inspiration from the nearby Rocky Mountains. With natural Douglas Fir structure and decking, the building aims to mimic the geography of a canyon.

Architects | Mar 16, 2023

HKS launches partner diversity program to create a more diverse workforce and partnership network

Design firm HKS has launched a new partner diversity program that will work to build a more diverse AEC ecosystem. The HKS xBE program will give xBE firms (a term encompassing all disadvantaged businesses) and their members “access to opportunities to build relationships, pursue new work, and bolster innovation within the architecture and design professions,” according to HKS.

Sustainability | Mar 16, 2023

Lack of standards for carbon accounting hamper emissions reduction

A lack of universally accepted standards for collecting, managing, and storing greenhouse gas emissions data (i.e., carbon accounting) is holding back carbon reduction efforts, according to an essay published by the Rocky Mountain Institute.

Currently Reading

In an era of mixed signals, architects embrace cautious optimism [2013 Giants 300 Report]

TOP ARCHITECTURE FIRMS

TOP ARCHITECTURE/ENGINEERING FIRMS

Tags

Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023

Government Buildings | Mar 24, 2023

Transportation & Parking Facilities | Mar 23, 2023

Healthcare Facilities | Mar 22, 2023

Project + Process Innovation | Mar 22, 2023

Women in Design+Construction | Mar 21, 2023

Mass Timber | Mar 19, 2023

Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 17, 2023

Architects | Mar 16, 2023

Sustainability | Mar 16, 2023

Most Popular Content

Magazine Subscription

Get our Newsletters

Follow BD+C: