Developers of multifamily apartment buildings remain mostly positive about their markets’ current conditions, according to the latest quarterly tracking data that the National Association of Home Builders released on February 26.
NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI), based on responses from 93 developers across the country, stood at 54, on a scale of 0 to 100, in the fourth quarter of 2014. The Index—a composite measure of developer sentiments about construction for low-rent units, market-rate rentals, and for-sale condos—registered above 50 for each quarter last year, and has been hovering at 50 or higher since the first quarter of 2013.
The latest reading “is in line with our view that the multifamily segment of the industry has largely recovered from the downturn,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “After increasing steadily over the past several years, multifamily production has now reached a healthy, sustainable level.”
Developers’ attitudes are also reflected in their willingness to take on future projects. In January, permits issued for buildings with five or more units rose by 13.8% to an annualized rate of 372,000, according to the Census Bureau.
A closer look at the numbers finds that developers’ sentiments about current conditions for market-rate starts, at an index of 62, were more robust than their sentiments for either low-rent starts (52) or for-sale condo starts (50).
NAHB’s Vacancy Index, which measures the industry’s perception about apartment vacancies, stood at 39 in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to 38 for the same quarter a year earlier. (The lower the index, the fewer the perceived vacancies.) Interestingly, developers perceived lower vacancies for Class B apartments compared to either Class A or C apartments.
Developers’ attitudes are also reflected in their willingness to take on future projects. In January, permits issued for buildings with five or more units rose by 13.8% to an annualized rate of 372,000, according to preliminary estimates released by the Census Bureau on February 18.
Multifamily starts in January were up 24.5% over the same month a year earlier to an annualized rate of 381,000 units. In 2015, NAHB expects multifamily starts ultimately to increase modestly to around 358,000. “Because of strong job growth, we expect to be able to keep building for the foreseeable future,” said W. Dean Henry, CEO of Legacy Partners Residential in Foster City, Calif., and chairman of NAHB’s Multifamily Leadership Board.
Financing projects should not be an issue, as more lenders are jumping into this sector. Banks and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities lenders increased their market share of lending for multifamily projects through 2014, and are expected to be even bigger players this year, as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pull back. “Capital is plentiful and many lenders are expanding their target markets for investments,” observed Faron Thompson, head of Jones Lang LaSalle’s multifamily debt finance team.
It’s worth noting, though, that Fannie and Freddie expect demand for multifamily housing to soften a bit over the next two years, and for most of the growth to occur in a limited number of metro markets.
Related Stories
High-rise Construction | Jul 9, 2013
5 innovations in high-rise building design
KONE's carbon-fiber hoisting technology and the Broad Group's prefab construction process are among the breakthroughs named 2013 Innovation Award winners by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
| Jul 8, 2013
RSMeans cost comparisons: hotels, motels, and apartment buildings
Construction market analysts from RSMeans offer construction costs per square foot for hotels, motels, and apartment buildings.
| Jul 3, 2013
Architects team with HUD to promote 'Rebuild By Design' competition for Hurricane Sandy recovery effort
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) today announced a communications campaign urging its membership to enter the “Rebuild by Design” multi-stage regional design competition announced by Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan on June 20.
| Jul 2, 2013
LEED v4 gets green light, will launch this fall
The U.S. Green Building Council membership has voted to adopt LEED v4, the next update to the world’s premier green building rating system.
| Jul 1, 2013
Report: Global construction market to reach $15 trillion by 2025
A new report released today forecasts the volume of construction output will grow by more than 70% to $15 trillion worldwide by 2025.
| Jun 28, 2013
Building owners cite BIM/VDC as 'most exciting trend' in facilities management, says Mortenson report
A recent survey of more than 60 building owners and facility management professionals by Mortenson Construction shows that BIM/VDC is top of mind among owner professionals.
| Jun 26, 2013
Commercial real estate execs eye multifamily, retail sectors for growth, says KPMG report
The multifamily, retail, and hospitality sectors are expected to lead commercial building growth, according to the 2013 KPMG Commercial Real Estate Outlook Survey.
| Jun 25, 2013
Mirvish, Gehry revise plans for triad of Toronto towers
A trio of mixed-use towers planned for an urban redevelopment project in Toronto has been redesigned by planners David Mirvish and Frank Gehry. The plan was announced last October but has recently been substantially revised.
| Jun 25, 2013
First look: Herzog & de Meuron's Jade Signature condo tower in Florida
Real estate developer Fortune International has released details of its new Jade Signature property, to be developed in Sunny Isles Beach near Miami. The luxury waterfront condo building will include 192 units in a 57-story building near high-end retail destinations and cultural venues.
| Jun 19, 2013
New York City considers new construction standards for hospitals, multifamily buildings
Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration has proposed new building codes for hospitals and multifamily dwellings in New York City to help them be more resilient in the event of severe weather resulting from climate change.
