Developers of multifamily apartment buildings remain mostly positive about their markets’ current conditions, according to the latest quarterly tracking data that the National Association of Home Builders released on February 26.
NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI), based on responses from 93 developers across the country, stood at 54, on a scale of 0 to 100, in the fourth quarter of 2014. The Index—a composite measure of developer sentiments about construction for low-rent units, market-rate rentals, and for-sale condos—registered above 50 for each quarter last year, and has been hovering at 50 or higher since the first quarter of 2013.
The latest reading “is in line with our view that the multifamily segment of the industry has largely recovered from the downturn,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “After increasing steadily over the past several years, multifamily production has now reached a healthy, sustainable level.”
Developers’ attitudes are also reflected in their willingness to take on future projects. In January, permits issued for buildings with five or more units rose by 13.8% to an annualized rate of 372,000, according to the Census Bureau.
A closer look at the numbers finds that developers’ sentiments about current conditions for market-rate starts, at an index of 62, were more robust than their sentiments for either low-rent starts (52) or for-sale condo starts (50).
NAHB’s Vacancy Index, which measures the industry’s perception about apartment vacancies, stood at 39 in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to 38 for the same quarter a year earlier. (The lower the index, the fewer the perceived vacancies.) Interestingly, developers perceived lower vacancies for Class B apartments compared to either Class A or C apartments.
Developers’ attitudes are also reflected in their willingness to take on future projects. In January, permits issued for buildings with five or more units rose by 13.8% to an annualized rate of 372,000, according to preliminary estimates released by the Census Bureau on February 18.
Multifamily starts in January were up 24.5% over the same month a year earlier to an annualized rate of 381,000 units. In 2015, NAHB expects multifamily starts ultimately to increase modestly to around 358,000. “Because of strong job growth, we expect to be able to keep building for the foreseeable future,” said W. Dean Henry, CEO of Legacy Partners Residential in Foster City, Calif., and chairman of NAHB’s Multifamily Leadership Board.
Financing projects should not be an issue, as more lenders are jumping into this sector. Banks and Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities lenders increased their market share of lending for multifamily projects through 2014, and are expected to be even bigger players this year, as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pull back. “Capital is plentiful and many lenders are expanding their target markets for investments,” observed Faron Thompson, head of Jones Lang LaSalle’s multifamily debt finance team.
It’s worth noting, though, that Fannie and Freddie expect demand for multifamily housing to soften a bit over the next two years, and for most of the growth to occur in a limited number of metro markets.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Mar 10, 2015
Multifamily renovation now drives growth for national restoration business
Response Team 1 has established a national footprint through acquisitions.
Retail Centers | Mar 10, 2015
Retrofit projects give dying malls new purpose
Approximately one-third of the country’s 1,200 enclosed malls are dead or dying. The good news is that a sizable portion of that building stock is being repurposed.
Architects | Mar 9, 2015
Study explores why high ceilings are popular
High ceilings give us a sense of freedom, new research finds
Transit Facilities | Mar 4, 2015
5+design looks to mountains for Chinese transport hub design
The complex, Diamond Hill, will feature sloping rooflines and a mountain-like silhouette inspired by traditional Chinese landscape paintings.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 3, 2015
10 kitchen and bath design trends for 2015
From kitchens made for pet lovers to floating vanities, the nation's top kitchen and bath designers identify what's hot for 2015.
Sponsored | Modular Building | Mar 3, 2015
Modular construction brings affordable housing to many New Yorkers
After city officials waived certain zoning and density regulations, modular microunits smaller than 400 square feet are springing up in New York.
Modular Building | Feb 23, 2015
Edge construction: The future of modular
Can innovative project delivery methods, namely modular construction, bring down costs and offer a solution for housing in urban markets? FXFOWLE’s David Wallance discusses the possibilities for modular.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 23, 2015
Millennials to outgrow Baby Boomers in 2015
The Baby Boomer generation, once the nation's largest living generation, will be outpaced by the Millennials this year, according to the Pew Research Center.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 19, 2015
Is multifamily construction getting too frothy for demand?
Contractors are pushing full speed ahead, but CoStar Group thinks a slowdown might be in order this year.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 18, 2015
Make It Right unveils six designs for affordable housing complex
BNIM is among the six firms involved in the project.
