Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Jan 31, 2023
2022 Government Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. government buildings sector
Gensler, Jacobs, Hensel Phelps, and Page top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest government sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Healthcare Facilities | Jan 31, 2023
How to solve humidity issues in hospitals and healthcare facilities
Humidity control is one of the top mechanical issues healthcare clients face. SSR's Lee Nordholm, PE, LEED AP, offers tips for handling humidity issues in hospitals and healthcare facilities.
University Buildings | Jan 30, 2023
How wellness is reshaping college recreation centers
Moody Nolan, a specialist in the design of college recreation centers, has participated in the evolution toward wellness on college campuses.
University Buildings | Jan 27, 2023
Ozarks Technical Community College's advanced manufacturing center is first-of-a-kind in region
The new Robert W. Plaster Center for Advanced Manufacturing at Ozarks Technical Community College in Springfield, Mo., is a first-of-a-kind educational asset in the region. The 125,000-sf facility will educate and train a new generation in high tech, clean manufacturing and fabrication.
Mass Timber | Jan 27, 2023
How to set up your next mass timber construction project for success
XL Construction co-founder Dave Beck shares important preconstruction steps for designing and building mass timber buildings.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jan 26, 2023
Miami’s motorsport ‘country club’ to build sleek events center
Designed by renowned Italian design firm Pininfarina and with Revuelta as architect, The Event Campus at The Concours Club will be the first and only motorsport-based event campus located within minutes of a major metro area.
K-12 Schools | Jan 25, 2023
As gun incidents grow, schools have beefed up security significantly in recent years
Recently released federal data shows that U.S. schools have significantly raised security measures in recent years. About two-thirds of public schools now control access to school grounds—not just the building—up from about half in the 2017-18 school year.
AEC Tech Innovation | Jan 24, 2023
ConTech investment weathered last year’s shaky economy
Investment in construction technology (ConTech) hit $5.38 billion last year (less than a 1% falloff compared to 2021) from 228 deals, according to CEMEX Ventures’ estimates. The firm announced its top 50 construction technology startups of 2023.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jan 24, 2023
Nashville boasts the largest soccer-specific stadium in the U.S. and Canada
At 30,105 seats and 530,000 sf, GEODIS Park, which opened in 2022, is the largest soccer-specific stadium in the U.S. and Canada. Created by design firms Populous and HASTINGS in collaboration with the Metro Nashville Sports Authority, GEODIS Park serves as the home of the Nashville Soccer Club as well as a venue for performances and events.
Concrete | Jan 24, 2023
Researchers investigate ancient Roman concrete to make durable, lower carbon mortar
Researchers have turned to an ancient Roman concrete recipe to develop more durable concrete that lasts for centuries and can potentially reduce the carbon impact of the built environment.