Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
Women in Design+Construction | May 28, 2024
Commerce Department launches Million Women in Construction Community Pledge
The U.S. Department of Commerce launched its Million Women in Construction Community Pledge this month to boost the ranks of women in construction companies. Federal investments are creating a construction boom that is increasing job opportunities for construction and trade workers.
Laboratories | May 24, 2024
The Department of Energy breaks ground on the Princeton Plasma Innovation Center
In Princeton, N.J., the U.S. Department of Energy’s Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) has broken ground on the Princeton Plasma Innovation Center (PPIC), a state-of-the-art office and laboratory building. Designed and constructed by SmithGroup, the $109.7 million facility will provide space for research supporting PPPL’s expanded mission into microelectronics, quantum sensors and devices, and sustainability sciences.
MFPRO+ News | May 24, 2024
Austin, Texas, outlaws windowless bedrooms
Austin, Texas will no longer allow developers to build windowless bedrooms. For at least two decades, the city had permitted developers to build thousands of windowless bedrooms.
Resiliency | May 24, 2024
As temperatures underground rise, so do risks to commercial buildings
Heat created by underground structures is increasing the risk of damage to buildings, recent studies have found. Basements, train tunnels, sewers, and other underground systems are making the ground around them warmer, which causes soil, sand, clay and silt to shift, settle, contract, and expand.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | May 23, 2024
The Cincinnati Open will undergo a campus-wide renovation ahead of the expanded 2025 tournament
One of the longest-running tennis tournaments in the country, the Cincinnati Open will add a 2,000-seat stadium, new courts and player center, and more greenspace to create a park-like atmosphere.
Mass Timber | May 22, 2024
3 mass timber architecture innovations
As mass timber construction evolves from the first decade of projects, we're finding an increasing variety of mass timber solutions. Here are three primary examples.
MFPRO+ News | May 21, 2024
Massachusetts governor launches advocacy group to push for more housing
Massachusetts’ Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll have taken the unusual step of setting up a nonprofit to advocate for pro-housing efforts at the local level. One Commonwealth Inc., will work to provide political and financial support for local housing initiatives, a key pillar of the governor’s agenda.
Building Tech | May 21, 2024
In a world first, load-bearing concrete walls built with a 3D printer
A Germany-based construction engineering company says it has constructed the world’s first load-bearing concrete walls built with a 3D printer. Züblin built a new warehouse from a single 3D print for Strabag Baumaschinentechnik International in Stuttgart, Germany using a Putzmeister 3D printer.
MFPRO+ News | May 20, 2024
Florida condo market roiled by structural safety standards law
A Florida law enacted after the Surfside condo tower collapse is causing turmoil in the condominium market. The law, which requires buildings to meet certain structural safety standards, is forcing condo associations to assess hefty fees to make repairs on older properties. In some cases, the cost per unit runs into six figures.
Mass Timber | May 17, 2024
Charlotte's new multifamily mid-rise will feature exposed mass timber
Construction recently kicked off for Oxbow, a multifamily community in Charlotte’s The Mill District. The $97.8 million project, consisting of 389 rental units and 14,300 sf of commercial space, sits on 4.3 acres that formerly housed four commercial buildings. The street-level retail is designed for boutiques, coffee shops, and other neighborhood services.