Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
| Dec 16, 2013
Is the metal building industry in a technology shift?
Automation is the future you can’t avoid, though you may try. Even within the metal building industry—which is made up of skilled tradesmen—automation has revolutionized, and will continue revolutionizing, how we work.
| Dec 16, 2013
Why employees don’t trust their leaders
Trust, one of the key elements to productive business relationships, is in short supply these days. An Associated Press-GfK poll discovered that only one-third of Americans say most people can be trusted and nearly two-thirds says “you can’t be too careful” in dealing with people.
| Dec 16, 2013
Construction materials prices remain stable in November
Overall, construction materials prices fell 0.5 percent in November and are up only 1.1 percent year over year, according to the Department of Labor’s Dec. 13 Producer Price Index.
| Dec 13, 2013
Safe and sound: 10 solutions for fire and life safety
From a dual fire-CO detector to an aspiration-sensing fire alarm, BD+C editors present a roundup of new fire and life safety products and technologies.
| Dec 13, 2013
AIA, MIT issue joint report on impact of design on public health
The research looks at the health of eight U.S. cities and lays out a path for translating the research into meaningful findings for policy makers and urban planners.
| Dec 11, 2013
Wyndham unveils hotel prototype for its Hawthorn Suites chain
The extended-stay hotel prototype reduces development costs by 46% for franchisees and enhances the overall guest experience.
| Dec 10, 2013
16 great solutions for architects, engineers, and contractors
From a crowd-funded smart shovel to a why-didn’t-someone-do-this-sooner scheme for managing traffic in public restrooms, these ideas are noteworthy for creative problem-solving. Here are some of the most intriguing innovations the BD+C community has brought to our attention this year.
| Dec 10, 2013
Modular Pedia-Pod: Sustainability in healthcare construction [slideshow]
Greenbuild 2013 in Philadelphia was the site of a unique display—Pedia-Pod, a modular pediatric treatment room designed and built by NRB, in collaboration with the editors of Building Design+Construction, SGC Horizon LLC, and their team of medical design consultants.
| Dec 9, 2013
Tips for designing higher education's newest building type: the learning commons
In this era of scaled-down budgets, maximized efficiencies, new learning methods and social media’s domination of face time, college and university campuses are gravitating toward a new space type: the learning commons.
| Dec 9, 2013
ULI: Real estate market in 2014 will be 'recovering from the recovery'
The U.S. commercial real estate market is gradually “recovering from the recovery” and will “gain momentum” in 2014, according to ULI CEO Patrick L. Phillips.
