Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
| Apr 8, 2014
40 Under 40 winners: Meet the contractors
Of the up-and-coming AEC professionals to be named to the class of 2014, nine make their living as contractors.
| Apr 2, 2014
The new model of healthcare facility management
A growing number of healthcare organizations are moving to an integrated real estate model in an effort to better manage costs, respond to regulatory requirements, and support changes in patient care delivery.
| Apr 2, 2014
8 tips for avoiding thermal bridges in window applications
Aligning thermal breaks and applying air barriers are among the top design and installation tricks recommended by building enclosure experts.
| Apr 1, 2014
Planned global commerce center breaks ground near Phoenix
When completed, PhoenixMart will be one of the largest single-level trade centers in the U.S.
| Mar 31, 2014
Extreme conversion: Soaring Canadian church transformed into contemporary library
Even before the St. Denys-du-Plateau Church was converted into a library, it was an unusual building, with a towering nave designed to mimic a huge tent inflated by the wind.
| Mar 28, 2014
Crazy commuting: British artist wants to construct 300-foot water slide on city street
Bristol-based artist Luke Jerram hopes that the temporary installation, once funded, will encourage the public to think about "how we want to use the city, and what sort of future we want to see.”
| Mar 27, 2014
Develop strategic thinkers throughout your firm
In study after study, strategic thinkers are found to be among the most highly effective leaders. But is there a way to encourage routine strategic thinking throughout an organization?
| Mar 27, 2014
16 kitchen and bath design trends for 2014
Work on multifamily housing projects? Here are the top kitchen and bath design trends, according to a survey of more than 420 kitchen and bath designers.
| Mar 26, 2014
Callison launches sustainable design tool with 84 proven strategies
Hybrid ventilation, nighttime cooling, and fuel cell technology are among the dozens of sustainable design techniques profiled by Callison on its new website, Matrix.Callison.com.
| Mar 26, 2014
First look: Lockheed Martin opens Advanced Materials and Thermal Sciences Center in Palo Alto
The facility will host advanced R&D in emerging technology areas like 3D printing, energetics, thermal sciences, and nanotechnology.