Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
| Jun 30, 2014
Report recommends making infrastructure upgrades a cabinet-level priority
The ASCE estimates that $3.6 trillion must be invested by 2020 to make critically needed upgrades and expansions of national infrastructure—and avoid trillions of dollars in lost business sales, exports, disposable income, and GDP.
| Jun 30, 2014
Gen X, not Baby Boomers, spending the most money on homes [infographic]
It turns out that Generation X, who have the highest incomes of the three generations surveyed, are paying the highest home payments and tend to have the largest households.
| Jun 30, 2014
Zaha Hadid's Iraq Parliament complex design marred with controversy
Zaha Hadid's design for the Iraq Parliament was selected, despite placing third in the original RIBA-organized competition.
| Jun 26, 2014
Plans for Britain’s newest landmark brings in international cooperation
Designers of the London Eye will team up with companies from France, the Netherlands and the United States to construct i360 Brighton, the U.K.'s newest observation tower.
| Jun 25, 2014
The best tall buildings of 2014
Four high-rise buildings from multiple continents have been selected as the best of their region. The best worldwide tall building will be announced November 6.
| Jun 25, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright’s Spring House, Cincinnati’s Union Terminal among 11 Most Endangered Historic Places for 2014
The National Trust for Historic Preservation released its annual list of 11 Most Endangered Historical Sites in the United States for 2014.
| Jun 25, 2014
Green Building Initiative Announces New Appointments to Board
Glumac consulting engineer CEO Steve Straus and Plum Creek director of real estate Doug Cole join GBI's board of directors.
| Jun 24, 2014
Mayor Rahm Emanuel announces plans for a Chicago Architecture Biennial
Chicago's mayor Rahm Emanuel announces plan to hold the Chicago Architecture Biennial in late 2015, intended to rival Venice's Biennale.
| Jun 24, 2014
Intuit begins work on LEED Platinum campus addition
Demolition will begin this week as a precursor to construction of Intuit's new addition to its Mountain View, Calif., campus. The first of two additions, a 185,000-sf building on Marine Way, is expected to begin construction in August.
| Jun 23, 2014
5 new designs unveiled for Make It Right homes at Fort Peck, Mont.
Make It Right, Brad Pitt's foundation that builds homes for people in need, has just revealed five new designs for the Fort Peck (Mont.) Indian Reservation.