Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
Sponsored | | Nov 12, 2014
Williams Scotsman plugs into the jobsite
Many of our customers conduct important business from their temporary modular jobsite office and most require access to technology to get their job done effectively and efficiently. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Nov 12, 2014
Chesapeake Bay Foundation completes uber-green Brock Environmental Center, targets Living Building certification
More than a decade after opening its groundbreaking Philip Merrill Environmental Center, the group is back at it with a structure designed to be net-zero water, net-zero energy, and net-zero waste.
| Nov 12, 2014
Forbes: Houston is America's #1 construction hotspot
A new list of America's 20 biggest boomtowns shows Houston on top, with New York City close behind, followed by Dallas, Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles.
| Nov 11, 2014
Renzo Piano's third building at London Bridge Quarter approved, will be built adjacent to the Shard
Renzo Piano Building Workshop has been granted planning approval for its residential building at London Bridge Quarter—a 26-story apartment tower dubbed Feilden House.
| Nov 10, 2014
Herzog & De Meuron unveils plan for National Library of Israel
The library’s new home will be a completely new building in Jerusalem, and will combine the functions of a central research center, a venue for indoor and outdoor cultural and educational activities, and a place for digital experience.
| Nov 10, 2014
Hotel construction pipeline hits five-year high
The hotel construction pipeline hit a five-year high in the third quarter, clocking in at 3,516 projects and 443,936 rooms, Lodging Econometrics reports.
| Nov 7, 2014
Arts college uses creative financing to build 493-bed student housing
Many states have cut back funding for higher education in recent years, and securing money for new housing has been tougher than ever for many colleges and universities. A recent residence hall project in Boston involving three colleges provides an inspiring example of how necessity can spawn invention in financing strategies.
| Nov 7, 2014
World's best new skyscraper: Sydney's vegetated One Central Park honored by CTBUH
The Jean Nouvel-designed tower tops the list of 88 entries in the 13th annual Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat Awards.
| Nov 6, 2014
Hines planning tall wood office building in Minneapolis
The Houston-based developer is planning a seven-story wood-framed office building in Minneapolis’ North Loop that will respect the neighborhood’s historic warehouse district look.
| Nov 6, 2014
Studio Gang Architects will convert power plant into college recreation center
The century-old power plant will be converted into a recreation facility with a coffee shop, lounges, club rooms, a conference center, lecture hall, and theater, according to designboom.