Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
Contractors | May 4, 2022
CFC Construction names Pat Smith president
CFC Construction is proud to announce that Pat Smith has been promoted to President of the Colorado-based general contractor.
Sponsored | Healthcare Facilities | May 3, 2022
Planning for hospital campus access that works for people
This course defines the elements of hospital campus access that are essential to promoting the efficient, stress-free movement of patients, staff, family, and visitors. Campus access elements include signage and wayfinding, parking facilities, transportation demand management, shuttle buses, curb access, valet parking management, roadways, and pedestrian walkways.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | May 3, 2022
For glass openings, how big is too big?
Advances in glazing materials and glass building systems offer a seemingly unlimited horizon for not only glass performance, but also for the size and extent of these light, transparent forms. Both for enclosures and for indoor environments, novel products and assemblies allow for more glass and less opaque structure—often in places that previously limited their use.
Codes and Standards | May 3, 2022
American Institute of Steel Construction updates environmental product declarations
The American Institute of Steel Construction has released updated environmental product declarations (EPDs) “to help designers and building owners design more environmentally friendly buildings and bridges,” according to an AISC news release.
Education Facilities | May 2, 2022
Texas School for the Deaf campus gateway enhances sense of belonging for deaf community
The recently completed Texas School for the Deaf Administration and Welcome Center and Early Learning Center, at the state’s oldest continuously operating public school, was designed to foster a sense of belonging for the deaf community.
Codes and Standards | May 2, 2022
Developer Hines, engineer MKA develop free embodied carbon reduction guide
Real estate management and investment firm Hines has released the Hines Embodied Carbon Reduction Guide. The free guide, produced with Magnusson Klemencic Associates (MKA), is the result of a two-year effort, relying on MKA’s industry-leading knowledge of carbon accounting and involvement in programs such as the Embodied Carbon in Construction Calculator (EC3) Tool.
Building Team | May 2, 2022
HED and VAI announce merger to bring strategic expertise and drive community impact in Dallas
HED (Harley Ellis Devereaux), a leading national architecture and engineering firm, today announced a merger with award-winning, Dallas-based VAI Architects Incorporated (VAI).
Laboratories | Apr 29, 2022
Oracle Industry Lab in Chicago enables development of solutions for multiple industries
The Oracle Industry Lab in Chicago, which provides customers in multiple industries the opportunity to test new technologies, recently opened.
Market Data | Apr 29, 2022
U.S. economy contracts, investment in structures down, says ABC
The U.S. economy contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate during the first quarter of 2022.
Codes and Standards | Apr 28, 2022
Architecture firm Perkins&Will to deliver ‘carbon forecasts’ for clients
Global architecture firm Perkins&Will says it will issue its clients a “carbon forecast” for their projects.