Construction employment continued to show strength across much of the United States through November 2017, when there were 191,000 more workers in the construction industry than during the same month a year earlier, and the construction unemployment rate fell by 0.7% to 5%, the lowest it’s been on record for the month of November, according to estimates released yesterday by Associated Builders and Contractors, a national trade group representing more than 21,000 members.
However, the industry still struggles with labor shortages that could be inhibiting investment and new construction.
During the first nine months of 2017, month-by-month employment growth was “minimal,” due primarily to “historically low unemployment” that limited the new construction talent pool, according to JLL’s Construction Outlook for the third quarter of 2017, which the market research and consulting firm released late last month.
During the third quarter of 2017, construction-related spending inched up by only 1.9% from the same period in 2016. “While topline spending is still increasing, consecutive quarters are demonstrating smaller and smaller gains over past years—underlining the trajectory towards a mature and stable industry,” JLL writes. Percentage growth of year-over-year spending decreased for nine out of the preceding 11 months, but was still above zero, “pointing to a tapering growth curve.”
With qualified construction workers being harder to find, labor costs were volatile through the first nine months of last year. Image: JLL Research
Citing Census Bureau estimates, Associated Builders and Contractors posted that nonresidential construction spending declined in November by 1.3%, to $719.2 billion, compared to the same month a year earlier. Private nonres spending was down by 3.1%, while public-sector nonres spending grew by 1.7%. The gainers included commercial, educational, lodging, transportation, healthcare, and public safety. Manufacturing construction took the biggest hit, down 15.6%.
Commercial real estate has proven over the past several years that it can perform well regardless of how the economy in general is growing. “Right now we see little in fundamentals to cause concern about real estate as an asset class,” JLL writes.
Public construction, infrastructure and public works projects picked up steam during the third quarter of 2017, while single-family home construction grew at nearly double-digit annualized growth, which is expected to continue in 2018. Multifamily starts, on the other hand, dipped.
While the groundbreaking of large scale private commercial projects began to scale back due to stretched-out timelines, commercial renovation and fit-out work strengthened, and should prevail through the next several quarters and beyond into 2019, JLL predicts.
The cost of building slowed in the third quarter, up by just 3% from third quarter 2016. But it still grew faster than construction spending primarily because of increasing labor costs. (Wages grew by nearly 3.4%, on an annualized basis, in the third quarter of 2017.) Indeed, JLL expects labor shortages to persist through 2018, at least, and for construction costs to be up another 3% this year. JLL expects wage growth to accelerate, potentially hitting 5% or higher during peak building seasons.
The severe weather events that hit certain areas of the country had a surprisingly minor impact on the availability of most building materials. Nevertheless, materials costs rose by 3% in the third quarter compared to the same period a year ago, and those costs “are beginning to outpace current demand,” says JLL. Impending tariffs on Canadian lumber imports could jack up lumber prices for U.S. purchasers by 20% this year.
Manpower shortages, and the prospect that labor and products will cost more, could finally push the construction industry to embrace technology to a greater degree than it has done so to this point. JLL sees BIM, artificial intelligence and big data, and prefab and offsite construction as the three technologies that show the most promise this year.
Related Stories
Green | Jan 10, 2020
How the new EC3 tool raises the bar on collective action
Nearly 50 AEC industry organizations partnered to develop the groundbreaking Embodied Carbon in Construction Calculator.
Sponsored | HVAC | Jan 6, 2020
Maximize Energy Efficiency in Class A Office Buildings With Modern Building Systems
Energy-efficient building design starts with the building envelope, but the building systems have a tremendous impact on energy use as well.
Contractors | Dec 30, 2019
Pepper Construction Group CEO J. David Pepper, 59, passes away
Pepper was a long-time leader of one of the largest Midwest general contractors who lived his life in service to others.
| Dec 18, 2019
Reconsidering construction robotics
After decades when experts predicted that robots would become more prevalent on construction sites, it would appear that the industry has finally reached that point where necessity, aspiration, and investment are colliding.
75 Top Building Products | Dec 16, 2019
Top Window and Door Products for 2019
Pella’s Rolscreen retractable screen and NanaWall’s HSW single-track sliding glass wall are among the 16 window and door products to make Building Design+Construction’s 2019 101 Top Products report.
75 Top Building Products | Dec 16, 2019
Top Structural Products for 2019
Inpro’s Fireline 140 fire barrier and Owens Corning’s Foamglas cellular glass insulation are among the 10 structural products to make Building Design+Construction's 2019 101 Top Products report.
75 Top Building Products | Dec 16, 2019
101 Top Products for 2019
Building Design+Construction readers and editors select their top building products for the past 12 months in the fourth-annual 101 Top Products report.
75 Top Building Products | Dec 16, 2019
Top Plumbing Products for 2019
Sloan's CX Flushometer and Zip Water's HydroTap are among the eight plumbing products to make Building Design+Construction's 2019 101 Top Products report.
75 Top Building Products | Dec 16, 2019
Top Interior Building Products for 2019
Arktura's Delta Drop ceiling and CertainTeed's Decoustics Rondolo wood panels are among the 13 new interior products to make Building Design+Construction's 2019 101 Top Products report.
75 Top Building Products | Dec 16, 2019
Top Glass and Glazing Products for 2019
SageGlass's Harmony dynamic glass and Vitro Architectural Glass's Acuity low-iron glass are among the nine new glass and glazing products to make Building Design+Construction's 2019 101 Top Products report.