The United States is on track to end this year with its highest level of construction put in place since 2008, a total that, if achieved, would represent nearly 7% of the country’s GDP.
However, construction has slowed of late, according to FMI Corporation, the management and investment consultant. In its Q2 Construction Outlook, FMI estimates construction in place this year would rise 5% to $1.012 trillion. In the first quarter, FMI had projected an 8% annualized gain.
FMI estimates the nonresidential building portion of total construction to expand by 7.6% to $407.2 billion in 2015, and to keep growing through 2019, when it should reach $510.2 billion. However, with housing also expected to recover strongly during this period, nonresidential building’s share of total construction put in place would fall in 2019 to 39.1%, from 40.2% in 2015.
Construction spending in general “continues to build on the rapid growth experienced in the industry last year,” observes Chris Daum, FMI’s senior managing director and president of Investment Banking. FMI’s latest report looks at 17 sectors. Here are some highlights:
• Don’t anticipate much from the two big-ticket sectors, Healthcare and Education, says FMI.
Even with 2.5 million students expected to enroll over the next four year, FMI doesn’t see Education growing in 2015. “One of the biggest hurdles to new construction continues to be state and local budgets,” it writes, adding that there is likely to be “significantly less” state funding for K-12 schools.”
Healthcare should fare a little better, growing by 2% in 2015, and 4% in 2016 to $41 billion. But a “difficult funding environment,” along with changes to construction delivery methods, poses challenges. One trend FMI identifies is toward rebuilding existing facilities using modern hospital design and allow for greater use of technology.
• Manufacturing: After a double-digit gain in 2014, FMI expects manufacturing construction to increase by 17% this year, and then slow to an 8% increase in 2016. It cautions that manufacturing capital construction is highly cyclical when markets reach a state of overcapacity, as some petrochemical products are expected to do in the next few years after a spate of building.
• Amusement/recreation: This section grew by 7% in 2014, and should top that at 9% in 2015. Several major sports stadiums are under construction, and a number of smaller towns and colleges are improving their sports facilities. States also continue to welcome gaming in hopes of increasing their tax bases. A new mixed-use development model combines multiple entertainment venues and shopping into an overall plan.
• Lodging: This sector will be a bright spot, growing by 19% in 2015, and by 12% in 2016, before slowing to 7% in 2019. To buttress its projections, FMI quotes from Lodging Econometrics’ May 2015 reports, which notes that there are 3,885 projects with 488,230 rooms in the construction pipeline, “with the last three quarters posting Year-Over-Year gains of 20% or greater.”
• Office: This sector is benefiting from improving employment levels, and should see 11% growth in 2015, albeit a bit slower than the 19% it hit in 2014.
• Commercial: Capturing what’s going on in retail construction, this sector is expected to grow by 13% to $69 billion this year, but be flat in 2016. “Consumers remain relatively confident about the economy, but they are also remaining conservative in their discretionary spending, at least until wage recovery improves,” FMI writes.
• Religious: What growth there is will likely be in renovation, as new congregations move into vacated retail space or reoccupy church buildings abandoned by other faiths. FMI thinks this sector could be flatlining, and quotes statistics from Pew Research Center that show the percentage of adults (ages 18 and older) who describe themselves as Christians dropping by nearly eight percentage points in just seven years through 2014. Over that same period, the percentage of Americans who are religiously unaffiliated jumped by more than six points, to 22.8%
• Transportation: After registering 5% growth in 2014, transportation is expected to add 7% for 2015 to $44.7 billion. But this sector remains heavily dependent on government support that is never a certainty.
Related Stories
| May 18, 2011
Lab personnel find comfort in former Winchester gun factory
The former Winchester Repeating Arms Factory in New Haven, Conn., is the new home of PepsiCo’s Biology Innovation Research Laboratory.
| May 18, 2011
Addition provides new school for pre-K and special-needs kids outside Chicago
Perkins+Will, Chicago, designed the Early Learning Center, a $9 million, 37,000-sf addition to Barrington Middle School in Barrington, Ill., to create an easily accessible and safe learning environment for pre-kindergarten and special-needs students.
| May 18, 2011
Raphael Viñoly’s serpentine-shaped building snakes up San Francisco hillside
The hillside location for the Ray and Dagmar Dolby Regeneration Medicine building at the University of California, San Francisco, presented a challenge to the Building Team of Raphael Viñoly, SmithGroup, DPR Construction, and Forell/Elsesser Engineers. The 660-foot-long serpentine-shaped building sits on a structural framework 40 to 70 feet off the ground to accommodate the hillside’s steep 60-degree slope.
| May 18, 2011
New center provides home to medical specialties
Construction has begun on the 150,000-sf Medical Arts Pavilion at the University Medical Center in Princeton, N.J.
| May 18, 2011
Improvements add to Detroit convention center’s appeal
Interior and exterior renovations and updates will make the Detroit Cobo Center more appealing to conventioneers. A new 40,000-sf ballroom will take advantage of the center’s riverfront location, with views of the river and downtown.
| May 18, 2011
One of Delaware’s largest high schools seeks LEED for Schools designation
The $82 million, 280,000-sf Dover (Del.) High School will have capacity for 1,800 students and feature a 900-seat theater, a 2,500-seat gymnasium, and a 5,000-seat football stadium.
| May 18, 2011
Carnegie Hall vaults into the 21st century with a $200 million renovation
Historic Carnegie Hall in New York City is in the midst of a major $200 million renovation that will bring the building up to contemporary standards, increase educational and backstage space, and target LEED Silver.
| May 17, 2011
Sustainability tops the syllabus at net-zero energy school in Texas
Texas-based firm Corgan designed the 152,200-sf Lady Bird Johnson Middle School in Irving, Texas, with the goal of creating the largest net-zero educational facility in the nation, and the first in the state. The facility is expected to use 50% less energy than a standard school.
| May 17, 2011
Gilbane partners with Steel Orca on ultra-green data center
Gilbane, along with Crabtree, Rohrbaugh & Associates, has been selected to partner with Steel Orca to design and build a 300,000-sf data center in Bucks County, Pa., that will be powered entirely through renewable energy sources--gas, solar, fuel cells, wind and geo-thermal. Completion is scheduled for 2013.
