The United States is on track to end this year with its highest level of construction put in place since 2008, a total that, if achieved, would represent nearly 7% of the country’s GDP.
However, construction has slowed of late, according to FMI Corporation, the management and investment consultant. In its Q2 Construction Outlook, FMI estimates construction in place this year would rise 5% to $1.012 trillion. In the first quarter, FMI had projected an 8% annualized gain.
FMI estimates the nonresidential building portion of total construction to expand by 7.6% to $407.2 billion in 2015, and to keep growing through 2019, when it should reach $510.2 billion. However, with housing also expected to recover strongly during this period, nonresidential building’s share of total construction put in place would fall in 2019 to 39.1%, from 40.2% in 2015.
Construction spending in general “continues to build on the rapid growth experienced in the industry last year,” observes Chris Daum, FMI’s senior managing director and president of Investment Banking. FMI’s latest report looks at 17 sectors. Here are some highlights:
• Don’t anticipate much from the two big-ticket sectors, Healthcare and Education, says FMI.
Even with 2.5 million students expected to enroll over the next four year, FMI doesn’t see Education growing in 2015. “One of the biggest hurdles to new construction continues to be state and local budgets,” it writes, adding that there is likely to be “significantly less” state funding for K-12 schools.”
Healthcare should fare a little better, growing by 2% in 2015, and 4% in 2016 to $41 billion. But a “difficult funding environment,” along with changes to construction delivery methods, poses challenges. One trend FMI identifies is toward rebuilding existing facilities using modern hospital design and allow for greater use of technology.
• Manufacturing: After a double-digit gain in 2014, FMI expects manufacturing construction to increase by 17% this year, and then slow to an 8% increase in 2016. It cautions that manufacturing capital construction is highly cyclical when markets reach a state of overcapacity, as some petrochemical products are expected to do in the next few years after a spate of building.
• Amusement/recreation: This section grew by 7% in 2014, and should top that at 9% in 2015. Several major sports stadiums are under construction, and a number of smaller towns and colleges are improving their sports facilities. States also continue to welcome gaming in hopes of increasing their tax bases. A new mixed-use development model combines multiple entertainment venues and shopping into an overall plan.
• Lodging: This sector will be a bright spot, growing by 19% in 2015, and by 12% in 2016, before slowing to 7% in 2019. To buttress its projections, FMI quotes from Lodging Econometrics’ May 2015 reports, which notes that there are 3,885 projects with 488,230 rooms in the construction pipeline, “with the last three quarters posting Year-Over-Year gains of 20% or greater.”
• Office: This sector is benefiting from improving employment levels, and should see 11% growth in 2015, albeit a bit slower than the 19% it hit in 2014.
• Commercial: Capturing what’s going on in retail construction, this sector is expected to grow by 13% to $69 billion this year, but be flat in 2016. “Consumers remain relatively confident about the economy, but they are also remaining conservative in their discretionary spending, at least until wage recovery improves,” FMI writes.
• Religious: What growth there is will likely be in renovation, as new congregations move into vacated retail space or reoccupy church buildings abandoned by other faiths. FMI thinks this sector could be flatlining, and quotes statistics from Pew Research Center that show the percentage of adults (ages 18 and older) who describe themselves as Christians dropping by nearly eight percentage points in just seven years through 2014. Over that same period, the percentage of Americans who are religiously unaffiliated jumped by more than six points, to 22.8%
• Transportation: After registering 5% growth in 2014, transportation is expected to add 7% for 2015 to $44.7 billion. But this sector remains heavily dependent on government support that is never a certainty.
Related Stories
| Oct 2, 2014
Effective use of building enclosure mock-ups within the commissioning process
Engineers from SSR offer advice and guidelines on implementing building enclosure mockups on any project.
| Oct 2, 2014
Budget busters: Report details 24 of the world's most obscenely over-budget construction projects
Montreal's Olympic Stadium and the Sydney Opera House are among the landmark projects to bust their budgets, according to a new interactive graph by Podio.
| Oct 1, 2014
Philip Johnson's iconic Crystal Cathedral to be modernized, made 'intrinsically Catholic'
Johnson Fain and Rios Clementi Hale Studios have been commissioned by the Roman Catholic Diocese of Orange to upgrade the all-glass church in Garden Grove, Calif. The church acquired the property in 2012.
| Oct 1, 2014
4 trends shaping the future of data centers
As a designer of mission critical facilities, I’ve learned that it’s really difficult to build data centers to keep pace with technology, yet that’s a reality we face along with our clients, writes Gensler's Jackson Metcalf.
| Oct 1, 2014
EYP, WHR Architects merge, strengthening presence in education, healthcare, energy sectors
The merger unites 530 professionals to better address some of the most critical issues facing our nation, namely education, healthcare, and energy.
| Sep 30, 2014
The Big Room concept: Using Building Team collocation to ensure project success
Implementing collocation via the Big Room concept will remove silos, ensure a cadence for daily communication, promote collaboration, and elevate your chances for success, write CBRE Healthcare's Stephen Powell and Magnus Nilsson.
| Sep 30, 2014
USGBC, Bank of America name recipients of 2014 Affordable Green Neighborhoods Grant Program
Eleven projects have been selected for the 2014 Affordable Green Neighborhoods grant program. Each will receive $31,000 and an educational package to support their pursuit of LEED for Neighborhood Development certification.
Sponsored | | Sep 30, 2014
What are you doing to win business and improve morale?? VDC Director Kris Lengieza shares ways to do both
Bluebeam's Sasha Reed sits down with Kris Lengieza, Director of Virtual Design and Construction for Stiles Corporation, to learn how he approaches change management. SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Sep 30, 2014
How project managers can manage technology
Not long ago, the role of a construction project manager revolved around working with people: employees, vendors, consultants, designers, subcontractors and owners. Today, project managers primarily manage information. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Sep 30, 2014
With its 'stacked volumes' scheme, 3XN wins bid to design high-rise in Sydney
By dividing the 200-meter building into five separate volumes and placing atria throughout each volume, the spaces become smaller, more intimate social environments, according to the Danish architects.
