The United States is on track to end this year with its highest level of construction put in place since 2008, a total that, if achieved, would represent nearly 7% of the country’s GDP.
However, construction has slowed of late, according to FMI Corporation, the management and investment consultant. In its Q2 Construction Outlook, FMI estimates construction in place this year would rise 5% to $1.012 trillion. In the first quarter, FMI had projected an 8% annualized gain.
FMI estimates the nonresidential building portion of total construction to expand by 7.6% to $407.2 billion in 2015, and to keep growing through 2019, when it should reach $510.2 billion. However, with housing also expected to recover strongly during this period, nonresidential building’s share of total construction put in place would fall in 2019 to 39.1%, from 40.2% in 2015.
Construction spending in general “continues to build on the rapid growth experienced in the industry last year,” observes Chris Daum, FMI’s senior managing director and president of Investment Banking. FMI’s latest report looks at 17 sectors. Here are some highlights:
• Don’t anticipate much from the two big-ticket sectors, Healthcare and Education, says FMI.
Even with 2.5 million students expected to enroll over the next four year, FMI doesn’t see Education growing in 2015. “One of the biggest hurdles to new construction continues to be state and local budgets,” it writes, adding that there is likely to be “significantly less” state funding for K-12 schools.”
Healthcare should fare a little better, growing by 2% in 2015, and 4% in 2016 to $41 billion. But a “difficult funding environment,” along with changes to construction delivery methods, poses challenges. One trend FMI identifies is toward rebuilding existing facilities using modern hospital design and allow for greater use of technology.
• Manufacturing: After a double-digit gain in 2014, FMI expects manufacturing construction to increase by 17% this year, and then slow to an 8% increase in 2016. It cautions that manufacturing capital construction is highly cyclical when markets reach a state of overcapacity, as some petrochemical products are expected to do in the next few years after a spate of building.
• Amusement/recreation: This section grew by 7% in 2014, and should top that at 9% in 2015. Several major sports stadiums are under construction, and a number of smaller towns and colleges are improving their sports facilities. States also continue to welcome gaming in hopes of increasing their tax bases. A new mixed-use development model combines multiple entertainment venues and shopping into an overall plan.
• Lodging: This sector will be a bright spot, growing by 19% in 2015, and by 12% in 2016, before slowing to 7% in 2019. To buttress its projections, FMI quotes from Lodging Econometrics’ May 2015 reports, which notes that there are 3,885 projects with 488,230 rooms in the construction pipeline, “with the last three quarters posting Year-Over-Year gains of 20% or greater.”
• Office: This sector is benefiting from improving employment levels, and should see 11% growth in 2015, albeit a bit slower than the 19% it hit in 2014.
• Commercial: Capturing what’s going on in retail construction, this sector is expected to grow by 13% to $69 billion this year, but be flat in 2016. “Consumers remain relatively confident about the economy, but they are also remaining conservative in their discretionary spending, at least until wage recovery improves,” FMI writes.
• Religious: What growth there is will likely be in renovation, as new congregations move into vacated retail space or reoccupy church buildings abandoned by other faiths. FMI thinks this sector could be flatlining, and quotes statistics from Pew Research Center that show the percentage of adults (ages 18 and older) who describe themselves as Christians dropping by nearly eight percentage points in just seven years through 2014. Over that same period, the percentage of Americans who are religiously unaffiliated jumped by more than six points, to 22.8%
• Transportation: After registering 5% growth in 2014, transportation is expected to add 7% for 2015 to $44.7 billion. But this sector remains heavily dependent on government support that is never a certainty.
Related Stories
Sponsored | | Oct 29, 2014
Historic Washington elementary school incorporates modular design
More and more architects and designers are leveraging modern modular building techniques for expansion projects planned on historical sites. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Oct 29, 2014
Diller Scofidio + Renfro selected to design Olympic Museum in Colorado Springs
The museum is slated for an early 2018 completion, and will include a hall of fame, theater, retail space, and a 20,000-sf hall that will showcase the history of the Olympics and Paralympics.
Smart Buildings | Oct 29, 2014
SCAPE’s 'living breakwaters' resiliency development wins 2014 Buckminster Fuller Challenge
New York-based landscape architecture firm SCAPE won the Buckminster Fuller Institute’s 2014 Fuller Challenge, billed as socially responsible design’s highest award.
| Oct 28, 2014
Miami accepts more modest plan to renovate its convention center
The city of Miami has awarded an $11 million contract for its on-again, off-again convention center renovation to Denver-based Fentress Architects, which will serve as the design criteria professional on this project.
| Oct 27, 2014
Davis, Calif., latest city to join race to develop 'innovation hubs'
The city plans to develop two "innovation centers" with a total of seven million sf of commercial space geared for local research and technology companies.
| Oct 27, 2014
Report estimates 1.2 million people experience LEED-certified retail centers daily
The "LEED In Motion: Retail" report includes USGBC’s conceptualization of the future of retail, emphasizing the economic and social benefit of green building for retailers of all sizes and types.
| Oct 27, 2014
Top 10 green building products for 2015
Among the breakthrough products to make BuildingGreen's annual Top-10 Green Building Products list are halogen-free polyiso insulation and a high-flow-rate biofiltration system.
| Oct 27, 2014
Studio Gang Architects designs residential tower with exoskeleton-like exterior for Miami
Jeanne Gang's design reinvents the Florida room with shaded, asymmetrical balconies.
| Oct 26, 2014
New York initiates design competition for upgrading LaGuardia, Kennedy airports
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that the state would open design competitions to fix and upgrade New York City’s aging airports. But financing construction is still unsettled.
| Oct 26, 2014
Study asks: Do green schools improve student performance?
A study by DLR Group and Colorado State University attempts to quantify the student performance benefits of green schools.