??Construction growth is looking up, according to the Winter 2013 release of the periodic report Construction Economics, authored by Gilbane Building Company. Construction spending for 2013 will finish the year 5% higher than 2012. All of the growth will be attributed to residential construction. However, the Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator, is up more than 20% since January 2013, indicating growth in 2014. ??
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped below 50 in April, briefly indicating declining workload. Through September, we’ve seen five more months of growth, a good leading indicator for future new construction work. In October we’ve just had another drop, but not below 50, indicating slower gains rather than declines.
??ENR published selling price data for 2013 that shows contractors adding to their margins.
Some economic factors are still negative:
- ??The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may climb from September through January, but then may decline by 10% through 2014. ??An anticipated decline in spending from February to May 2014 is influenced only mildly by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a flattening in residential but is influenced strongly by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending.
- ??The construction workforce is still 25% below the peak. It will take a minimum of four more years to return to peak levels.
- ??As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity, and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
Impact of recent events:
- ??FMI’s Third Quarter 2013 Construction Outlook Report mentions a few reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: the decline in public construction as sequestration continues; lenders are still tight with lending criteria and consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, and that includes the consumers’share of public debt.
- ??Comments regarding the outlook for economic stimulus have recently caused interest rates to increase rapidly. Lending criteria is still tight and borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. Rates will continue to rise and borrowing costs will add potential cost to future funding of projects. The cheapest time to build is now behind us.
- ??Construction jobs growth has slowed. Jobs grew by 90,000 in the first half of 2013, but have grown by only 33,000 since June.
The impacts of growth:
- ??Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- ??As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ??ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices up on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices are up on average 4%. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
Supported by overall positive growth trends for the year 2013, expect margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in five years.
Nonresidential buildings construction slowed in the first five months but is expected to increase substantially in the last few months of 2013. We will see a decline in nonbuilding infrastructure extend completely through 2014. Residential work will remain extremely active. Once growth in nonresidential construction picks up, and both residential and nonresidential are active, we will begin to see more significant labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. Even moderate growth in activity will allow contractors to pass along more material costs and increase margins. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here for the full report.
About Gilbane
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Author Ed Zarenski, a 40-year construction veteran and a member of the Gilbane team for more than 33 years, is an Estimating Executive who has managed multimillion dollar project budgeting, owner capital plan cost control, value engineering and life cycle cost analysis. He compiles economic information and provides data analysis and opinion for this quarterly report.
Related Stories
| May 17, 2011
Architecture billings index fell in April, hurt by tight financing for projects
The architecture billings index, a leading indicator of U.S. construction activity, fell in April, hurt by tight financing for projects. The architecture billings index fell 2.9 points last month to 47.6, a level that indicates declining demand for architecture services, according to the American Institute of Architects.
| May 17, 2011
Sustainability tops the syllabus at net-zero energy school in Texas
Texas-based firm Corgan designed the 152,200-sf Lady Bird Johnson Middle School in Irving, Texas, with the goal of creating the largest net-zero educational facility in the nation, and the first in the state. The facility is expected to use 50% less energy than a standard school.
| May 17, 2011
Gilbane partners with Steel Orca on ultra-green data center
Gilbane, along with Crabtree, Rohrbaugh & Associates, has been selected to partner with Steel Orca to design and build a 300,000-sf data center in Bucks County, Pa., that will be powered entirely through renewable energy sources--gas, solar, fuel cells, wind and geo-thermal. Completion is scheduled for 2013.
| May 17, 2011
Should Washington, D.C., allow taller buildings?
Suggestions are being made that Washington revise its restrictions on building heights. Architect Roger Lewis, who raised the topic in the Washington Post a few weeks ago, argues for a modest relaxation of the height limits, and thinks that concerns about ruining the city’s aesthetics are unfounded.
| May 17, 2011
The New Orleans master plan
At an afternoon panel during last week's AIA National Conference in New Orleans, Goody Clancy Principal David Dixon and Manning Principal W. Raymond Manning shared their experiences creating the New Orleans Master Plan, a document that sets a new course for the city, from land use and transportation planning to environmental protection.
| May 17, 2011
Do these buildings look like buffalo to you?
It’s hard to contemplate winter now that we’re mid-spring, but when the seasons change, ice skaters in Winnipeg will be able to keep warm in plywood shelters designed by Patkau Architects. The designers created temporary shelters inspired by animal behavior—specifically, buffalo bracing against the wind. Check them out.
| May 16, 2011
USGBC and AIA unveil report for greening K-12 schools
The U.S. Green Building Council and the American Institute of Architects unveiled "Local Leaders in Sustainability: A Special Report from Sundance," which outlines a five-point national action plan that mayors and local leaders can use as a framework to develop and implement green schools initiatives.
| May 16, 2011
Dassault Systèmes to distribute Gehry Technologies’ digital project
Dassault Systèmes and Gehry Technologies announced that Gehry Technologies’ Digital Project products will be integrated into the Dassault Systèmes’ portfolio and distributed through Dassault Systèmes. Digital Project is a suite of 3D BIM applications created by Gehry Technologies using Dassault Systèmes’ CATIA as a core modeling engine.
| May 11, 2011
DOE releases guide for 50% more energy-efficient office buildings
The U.S. Department of Energy today announced the release of the first in a new series of Advanced Energy Design Guides to aid in the design of highly energy efficient office buildings. The 50% AEDG series will provide a practical approach to commercial buildings designed to achieve 50% energy savings compared to the commercial building energy code used in many areas of the country.
| May 10, 2011
Google hires Ingenhoven Architects to design new Mountain View office
The current Googleplex is straining at the seams and yet the company is preparing its biggest hiring surge ever, so Google decided now’s the time to build its own office space—a first for the Internet giant. The company hired Ingenhoven Architects, a German firm that specializes in sustainable architecture, to create plans for what could be a 600,000-sf office.
