??Construction growth is looking up, according to the Winter 2013 release of the periodic report Construction Economics, authored by Gilbane Building Company. Construction spending for 2013 will finish the year 5% higher than 2012. All of the growth will be attributed to residential construction. However, the Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator, is up more than 20% since January 2013, indicating growth in 2014. ??
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped below 50 in April, briefly indicating declining workload. Through September, we’ve seen five more months of growth, a good leading indicator for future new construction work. In October we’ve just had another drop, but not below 50, indicating slower gains rather than declines.
??ENR published selling price data for 2013 that shows contractors adding to their margins.
Some economic factors are still negative:
- ??The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may climb from September through January, but then may decline by 10% through 2014. ??An anticipated decline in spending from February to May 2014 is influenced only mildly by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a flattening in residential but is influenced strongly by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending.
- ??The construction workforce is still 25% below the peak. It will take a minimum of four more years to return to peak levels.
- ??As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity, and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
Impact of recent events:
- ??FMI’s Third Quarter 2013 Construction Outlook Report mentions a few reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: the decline in public construction as sequestration continues; lenders are still tight with lending criteria and consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, and that includes the consumers’share of public debt.
- ??Comments regarding the outlook for economic stimulus have recently caused interest rates to increase rapidly. Lending criteria is still tight and borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. Rates will continue to rise and borrowing costs will add potential cost to future funding of projects. The cheapest time to build is now behind us.
- ??Construction jobs growth has slowed. Jobs grew by 90,000 in the first half of 2013, but have grown by only 33,000 since June.
The impacts of growth:
- ??Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- ??As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ??ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices up on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices are up on average 4%. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
Supported by overall positive growth trends for the year 2013, expect margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in five years.
Nonresidential buildings construction slowed in the first five months but is expected to increase substantially in the last few months of 2013. We will see a decline in nonbuilding infrastructure extend completely through 2014. Residential work will remain extremely active. Once growth in nonresidential construction picks up, and both residential and nonresidential are active, we will begin to see more significant labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. Even moderate growth in activity will allow contractors to pass along more material costs and increase margins. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here for the full report.
About Gilbane
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Author Ed Zarenski, a 40-year construction veteran and a member of the Gilbane team for more than 33 years, is an Estimating Executive who has managed multimillion dollar project budgeting, owner capital plan cost control, value engineering and life cycle cost analysis. He compiles economic information and provides data analysis and opinion for this quarterly report.
Related Stories
| Nov 10, 2014
5 guiding principles for solving airflow issues in open-plenum office spaces
Although architecturally appealing, exposed ceilings can create unwanted drafts and airflow problems if not engineered correctly. McGuire Engineers' Bill Stangeland offers tips for avoiding airflow issues on these projects.
| Nov 10, 2014
Clemson, Parsons architecture education programs honored for innovation, long-term impact
The architecture programs at Parsons The New School for Design and Clemson University have been selected as 2014 NCARB Award recipients for developing innovative curricula that merge practice and education.
| Nov 10, 2014
Herzog & De Meuron unveils plan for National Library of Israel
The library’s new home will be a completely new building in Jerusalem, and will combine the functions of a central research center, a venue for indoor and outdoor cultural and educational activities, and a place for digital experience.
| Nov 10, 2014
Hotel construction pipeline hits five-year high
The hotel construction pipeline hit a five-year high in the third quarter, clocking in at 3,516 projects and 443,936 rooms, Lodging Econometrics reports.
| Nov 7, 2014
Arts college uses creative financing to build 493-bed student housing
Many states have cut back funding for higher education in recent years, and securing money for new housing has been tougher than ever for many colleges and universities. A recent residence hall project in Boston involving three colleges provides an inspiring example of how necessity can spawn invention in financing strategies.
| Nov 7, 2014
Prefab helps Valparaiso student residence project meet an ambitious deadline
Few colleges or universities have embraced prefabrication more wholeheartedly than Valparaiso (Ind.) University. The Lutheran-based institution completed a $27 million residence hall this past summer in which the structural elements were all precast.
| Nov 7, 2014
World's best new skyscraper: Sydney's vegetated One Central Park honored by CTBUH
The Jean Nouvel-designed tower tops the list of 88 entries in the 13th annual Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat Awards.
| Nov 7, 2014
NORD Architects releases renderings for Marine Education Center in Sweden
The education center will be set in a landscape that includes small ponds and plantings intended to mimic an assortment of marine ecologies and create “an engaging learning landscape” for visitors to experience nature hands-on.
Sponsored | | Nov 6, 2014
To build your strongest team, don't hire clones
To attract and keep talented individuals who are different than you, Entrepreneur magazine suggests a few foundational principles. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Nov 6, 2014
Hines planning tall wood office building in Minneapolis
The Houston-based developer is planning a seven-story wood-framed office building in Minneapolis’ North Loop that will respect the neighborhood’s historic warehouse district look.
