??Construction growth is looking up, according to the Winter 2013 release of the periodic report Construction Economics, authored by Gilbane Building Company. Construction spending for 2013 will finish the year 5% higher than 2012. All of the growth will be attributed to residential construction. However, the Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator, is up more than 20% since January 2013, indicating growth in 2014. ??
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped below 50 in April, briefly indicating declining workload. Through September, we’ve seen five more months of growth, a good leading indicator for future new construction work. In October we’ve just had another drop, but not below 50, indicating slower gains rather than declines.
??ENR published selling price data for 2013 that shows contractors adding to their margins.
Some economic factors are still negative:
- ??The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may climb from September through January, but then may decline by 10% through 2014. ??An anticipated decline in spending from February to May 2014 is influenced only mildly by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a flattening in residential but is influenced strongly by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending.
- ??The construction workforce is still 25% below the peak. It will take a minimum of four more years to return to peak levels.
- ??As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity, and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
Impact of recent events:
- ??FMI’s Third Quarter 2013 Construction Outlook Report mentions a few reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: the decline in public construction as sequestration continues; lenders are still tight with lending criteria and consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, and that includes the consumers’share of public debt.
- ??Comments regarding the outlook for economic stimulus have recently caused interest rates to increase rapidly. Lending criteria is still tight and borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. Rates will continue to rise and borrowing costs will add potential cost to future funding of projects. The cheapest time to build is now behind us.
- ??Construction jobs growth has slowed. Jobs grew by 90,000 in the first half of 2013, but have grown by only 33,000 since June.
The impacts of growth:
- ??Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- ??As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ??ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices up on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices are up on average 4%. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
Supported by overall positive growth trends for the year 2013, expect margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in five years.
Nonresidential buildings construction slowed in the first five months but is expected to increase substantially in the last few months of 2013. We will see a decline in nonbuilding infrastructure extend completely through 2014. Residential work will remain extremely active. Once growth in nonresidential construction picks up, and both residential and nonresidential are active, we will begin to see more significant labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. Even moderate growth in activity will allow contractors to pass along more material costs and increase margins. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here for the full report.
About Gilbane
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Author Ed Zarenski, a 40-year construction veteran and a member of the Gilbane team for more than 33 years, is an Estimating Executive who has managed multimillion dollar project budgeting, owner capital plan cost control, value engineering and life cycle cost analysis. He compiles economic information and provides data analysis and opinion for this quarterly report.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Apr 7, 2022
Ken Soble Tower becomes world’s largest residential Passive House retrofit
The project team for the 18-story high-rise for seniors slashed the building’s greenhouse gas emissions by 94 percent and its heating energy demand by 91 percent.
Architects | Apr 7, 2022
Perkins Eastman, Kliment Halsband Architects to merge
Perkins Eastman and Kliment Halsband Architects have announced their merger, which will combine the formidable talents, experience, and skills of both legacy firms. With Perkins Eastman celebrating its 40th anniversary and Kliment Halsband celebrating its 50th, this merger promises to create powerful synergies.
Urban Planning | Apr 5, 2022
The art of master planning, with Mike Aziz of Cooper Robertson
Mike Aziz, AIA, LEED AP, Partner and Director of Urban Design with Cooper Robertson, discusses his firm's design for the redevelopment of a Connecticut town's riverfront.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 5, 2022
New Covenant House New York contains multiple services for youth in crisis
The new Covenant House New York, a crisis shelter for homeless youth in the Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood, provides a temporary home and multiple services for young people.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Apr 1, 2022
Video surveillance systems for multifamily housing projects
This introductory course provides detailed technical information and advice from security expert Michael Silva, CPP, on designing a video surveillance system for multifamily housing communities – apartments, condominiums, townhouses, or senior living communities. Technical advice on choosing the right type of cameras and optimizing the exterior lighting for their use is offered.
K-12 Schools | Apr 1, 2022
Charleston County’s award-winning career and technical education high school
BD+C Executive Editor Rob Cassidy talks with the team behind the award-winning Cooper River Center for Advanced Studies, a Career|Technical Education high school in Charleston County, S.C.
Modular Building | Mar 31, 2022
Rick Murdock’s dream multifamily housing factory
Modular housing leader Rick Murdock had a vision: Why not use robotic systems to automate the production of affordable modular housing? Now that vision is a reality.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 29, 2022
Here’s why the U.S. needs more ‘TOD’ housing
Transit-oriented developments help address the housing affordability issue that many cities and suburbs are facing.
Contractors | Mar 28, 2022
Amid supply chain woes, building teams employ extreme procurement measures
Project teams are looking to eliminate much of the guesswork around product availability and price inflation by employing early bulk-purchasing measures for entire building projects.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Mar 28, 2022
Is your firm a reconstruction sector giant?
Is your firm active in the U.S. building reconstruction, renovation, historic preservation, and adaptive reuse markets? We invite you to participate in BD+C's inaugural Reconstruction Market Research Report.
